• Supportive, sideways trend has been intact, but under constant attack
• The negative trend of "higher lows" collides with the supportive trend today
• Bigger moves could follow after the recent run of narrow range-trading
• Existing Home Sales unlikely to cast the deciding vote

While there have been some moments of relative excitement over the past two weeks, and several days with slightly bigger moves, yields remain well-contained by a range of 1.72% to 1.80% in terms of 10yr Treasury daily closing yields.  The upper boundary for that range is well-defined, not only because it's been more frequently hit, but also because it coincides with the 21-day moving average.  You'll be able to see this in today's chart as the middle yellow line.

You'll also be able to see the problematic trend of "higher lows" in terms of closing yields.  In other words, even though yields have been contained by this range, there's a negative trend underway inside that range, and it runs out of room today.

As seen in the lower 2 sections of the chart, momentum indicators (in this case, fast and slow stochastics) definitely leave the door open for pain in the event yields break higher this week.  That said, this week's trading is quite dissimilar to late February's in that we've been trending higher in yield very slowly.  In contrast, the sell-off on March 1st that broke overhead support and triggered the break in Fast Stochastics (red and blue lines) happened all in one precipitous day.

Bottom line, we're not necessarily doomed ust because the most recent example in stochastics paints a negative picture.  In fact, it could just as easily be argued that bonds have been rather resilient in the face of rising stocks, oil prices, and corporate bond issuance.  The battle is still balanced enough that it can go either way.  The important part is to keep a careful eye on overhead support and take the appropriate precautions if the ceiling breaks.

Today's only relevant data is Existing Home Sales at 10am.  This is seldom a big market mover, but it can have an impact if it falls far enough from consensus.  Even then, we've seen plenty of other recent data fall far from consensus only to have markets move back in the other direction after a brief, token reaction.