• past few days = negative technical signals galore for bonds
• 3rd consecutive week of higher lows and higher highs for rates
• momentum indicators suggest big risk of several negative weeks
• if Oil/stocks tank, it  won't necessarily save bonds 

If you've checked in at all over the past few days, you're well aware that bond markets are under a significant amount of pressure and that we're on target for the worst week since early November 2015.  The key issues are threefold.  In order of importance, we have:

1. Global bond yields bouncing off the all-time lows seen in early April.  

2. Oil prices at the highest levels of the year

3. Stocks breaking out of the parabolic reversal pattern we'd been tracking (to be fair, stocks still look like they could be reversing course, but the sharper parabolic pattern has at least been flattened out.  It would be worth more concern if stocks break 2015 highs.  Otherwise, many will continue to believe that they're simply topping out again before a long-term down cycle).

Now, about those negative technical signals in bonds...  First let's take a look at WEEKLY candlesticks.  In this chart, each red or green candle is an entire week's worth of trading (with this week being on the far right).  The bottom of green and the top of red candles is where the week closed.  Note the recent trouble we've encountered in closing below the low 1.7's.more importantly, note that there is only one time where yields have bounced up through this entire range in a week without continuing higher in the following week (the last spike in 2012.  not highlighted).

I will say that the chart above still has every possibility of being bullish in the long term.  The "higher lows" are extraordinarily gradual compared to the lower highs.  That's a bullish pattern most of the time.  While it might not be much solace in the short term (next few weeks, at least), long term hopes can stay alive without question.

More to the point of a lack of short term solace, the patterns in daily charts are even more conclusive.  The past few days have seen a break into the 'oversold' territory in Fast Stochastics.  This is a piece of technical analysis that measures momentum.  The "fast" version does just what it says, offering more frequent signals with a greater margin of error.  

Almost every time Fast Stochastics break that upper line (as seen in the chart), weakness ensues for at least several weeks.  The Slow Stochastics (at the bottom of the chart) will typically serve as the signal that the reversal is happening if their 2 lines are crossing around the same time Fast Stochastics are coming back below oversold territory.  The current case would suggest some time in the first half of May, but it's harder to say how long before rates would get back to current levels.  

There is no significant economic data today, and most traders will simply be trying to find their way to the exits without causing or taking part in too much drama.  The dirty work for the week has already been done as far as most market participants are concerned.  That doesn't mean we won't necessarily see a move outside yesterday's range, but it might be incidental unless it's accompanied by higher volumes and concurrent movement in related markets.  In other words, if bonds are breaking higher but stocks/oil/etc. are flat and volumes are low, we might not read as much into it.