• Lots of economic data on tap including some big names
  • Treasury auction cycle (2, 5, 7yr)
  • FOMC Announcement Wednesday (Bank of Japan Thursday) 
  • Month-End on Friday
  • Bonds will be forced to take a stand

Bond markets rarely encounter weeks as pivotal as the one that lies before us.  There's something for everyone, no matter your favorite market moving category.  One of the least important categories of late has been economic data.  That could change this week as markets finally get the initial GDP reading for Q1.  Of the three GDP releases for any given quarter, the 1st and the 3rd carry to most weight.  Other data highlights include New Home Sales today, Durable Goods tomorrow and incomes/outlays data on Friday.  Several 2nd tier reports dot the rest of the calendar.

Speaking of dots, this week's FOMC Announcement will NOT have the Fed's updated economic projections, nor will it have the post-meeting press conference with Yellen.  Pundits claim that the Fed is much less likely to announce major policy changes at these 'off-cycle' meetings, but as we say in October, the Fed can still use the policy text to blatantly foreshadow a coming change.  Markets will be looking for any little clue that confirms the Fed's June rate hike intentions (or lack thereof).  Another central bank wildcard will come courtesy of the policy announcement from the Bank of Japan on Thursday.

"Supply" and tradeflows will round out the roster of potential bond market movers.  The most relevant supply will be  in the form of Treasury auctions today, Tuesday, and Thursday (2, 5, and 7yr Treasuries respectively).  These aren't necessarily market movers in and of themselves.  They simply add supply pressure to bond markets in general, and on a week with lots of economic data, a Fed Announcement, and Month-End.  The other supply considerations will come via corporate bond announcements as firms scramble to get their deals priced before the Fed and/or month-end.

2016-4-25 Treasury Techs


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-32 : -0-02
Treasuries
10 YR
1.9000 : +0.0120
Pricing as of 4/25/16 9:20AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Apr 25
10:00 New home sales-units mm (ml)* Mar 0.520 0.512
10:00 New home sales chg mm (%)* Mar 1.0 2.0
13:00 2-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 26
Tuesday, Apr 26
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Mar 1.8 -3.0
9:00 CaseShiller 20 mm SA (%)* Feb 0.8 0.8
10:00 Consumer confidence * Apr 96.0 96.2
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 34
Wednesday, Apr 27
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 526.8
10:00 Pending sales change mm (%) Mar 0.5 3.5
10:00 Pending homes index Mar 109.1
14:00 FOMC rate decision (%)* N/A 0.375
Thursday, Apr 28
8:30 GDP Advance (%) Q1 0.6 1.4
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims (k)* w/e 260 247
13:00 7-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 28
Friday, Apr 29
8:30 Consumption, adjusted mm (%)* Mar 0.2 0.1
8:30 Personal income mm (%) Mar 0.3 0.2
8:30 PCE price index mm (%)* Mar -0.1
8:30 Employment costs (%) Q1 0.6 0.6
9:45 Chicago PMI * Apr 53.0 53.6
10:00 U Mich Sentiment Final (ip) Apr 90.0 89.7