• Durable Goods at 830am and Consumer Confidence are bigger ticket reports than yesterday's New Home Sales
• The econ data won't have the final word on market movement
• bonds are preparing for the Fed in the bigger picture
• current levels are an approximate mid-point with Fed capable of doubling or erasing recent sell-off

Bond markets continue playing defense with another day of modest weakness yesterday and an overnight session that didn't offer any meaningful push back to begin today's trading.  Stocks and oil have been less directly-connected than European bond markets when it comes US bond market muses.  

What about economic data?  With the sometimes important Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence reports out today, can we expect more of a reaction than seen with yesterday's arguably less important New Home Sales?  Yes, that's possible, but only in the event of major deviations from forecasts.

The biggest source of inspiration this week continues to be tomorrow's Fed Announcement.  We can clearly see bond markets leveling-off, asymptotically approaching 1.92% in 10yr yields.  With some quick cocktail napkin math, if we look at the last major pivot at 1.84, add 8 bps to get to 1.92, and then look 8 bps overhead, we see the next major defensive ceiling.  This is the scene of the next battle, should bonds have a weaker response over the next 48 hours (preparatory trading today and FOMC tomorrow).