• 10yr yields still consolidating in bigger picture. 
• "triangles" often throw head-fakes
• Stocks' fate still unclear
• Retail Sales is only big-ticket data

Today brings the only meaningful economic data of the week in the form of Retail Sales (which will likely be out by the time you read this).  The median forecast is for a 0.8 percent increase after last month's 0.4 percent decrease.  While Retail Sales can always be a market mover in the short term, it's not at all likely that it will affect the big picture trends in today's charts.

I wanted to take a step back and look at that bigger picture, just to emphasize a few points.  For bonds, the point is that we're squeezing into an increasingly narrow/low range very close to all-time lows (that's "close" in terms of the bigger picture.  It's not like 10yr yields will trade into the high 1.3's today, but relative to the last 30 years, we might as well be at all-time lows).  For stocks, the point is that they're still very much at risk of doing that "big cyclical shift thing" that we've been talking about for a few years now.  (And yes, I intentionally refer to bonds in the first person and stocks in the 3rd.  Gotta root for the home team).

A secondary point about the bond portion of the chart is that the "triangles" (the consolidation trends seen in the form of higher lows and lower highs) can often start out with more aggressive angles and then widen before taking their final form.  This is the nature of financial markets!  No chart pattern will be a perfect indicator of the future.  Notice how the original teal-line triangle was broken on the low side and then the high side before yields ultimately went lower.  That's the "head fake."

Incidentally, there is one other triangle that could be drawn on the Treasury section.  I put this in it's own chart a few weeks back:

The resolution of this triangle looks like it may well coincide with the resolution of the long-term reversal pattern in stocks.  Wouldn't that be something!