Strong, stable payroll growth is old news.  Yet another NFP reading north of 150k or another 5%-ish unemployment reading are just a few more bricks in fairly meaningless wall.  After all, that wall has failed to produce meaningful inflation in the same way its past examples have, and it's inflation that the Fed needs to see in order to feel any pressing urge to hike.

And it's not just inflation!  Even if the Fed was seeing enough inflation to justify a rate hike, they still face hurdles.  The most immediate hurdle is the British referendum on EU membership at the end of the month.  Most recent Fed speakers have noted that uncertainty over the so-called Brexit is likely to keep a rate hike on hold in June.

Then there's the simple bigger monetary policy picture where the Fed is the only major central bank swimming against the current by removing accommodation while others are still adding it.  Even some Fed speakers have noted that easier monetary policy at other central banks is akin to someone else doing their job for them.  If Japan and the EU are enacting policies that devalue their own currencies, the US dollar benefits, just as it does from tighter monetary policy from the Fed.

Now, the Fed will be the first to tell you that they're not here to manage currency valuations, but it's an unavoidable side-effect of monetary policy nonetheless.  The only reason I bring this up is to say that the Fed isn't focused on the value of the dollar, so it's not as if they'll say "oh, policy is loose in the EU and Japan, so we don't need to hike."

All of the above having been said, I always like to point out that there is more of an automatic market response built into the NFP number than any other piece of economic data.  Yes, it's true that bonds are much more concerned with Fed policy at the moment and that the Fed is much more concerned with "stuff" that can't readily be gleaned from NFP, but the jobs report can absolutely still look like it's rocking markets at first today.  If that happens, I would be very surprised if we didn't get right back on the prevailing path (consolidative bigger-picture range heading into Fed Announcement and Brexit vote later this month).