- Strong overnight pop in Treasuries, ECB headlines cited
- Record low 30yr bond yield and near-record low in 10yr yield
- Bonds lost ground after Europe ran out of steam
- Bonds lost more ground after ISM data, but held on to modest gains
All in all, today managed to be fairly interesting, considering its status as a "half-day before a 3-day weekend." The overnight trade was driven by some important headlines out of Europe. These dealt with the recent rumors that the ECB was considering changing its rules for how much sovereign debt it could buy from any given country. Under the current system, bond buying is based on the level of contribution that a country has made into the ECB. In other words, it's proportionate and fair.
The rumor was that the ECB would consider buying more bonds of certain countries that needed more stimulus in order to benefit the broader Eurozone. This was good news for the likes of Italy, Portugal and Spain, and bad news for Germany. When the overnight wires came out refuting the rumors, German yields dropped quickly and brought Treasuries along for the ride.
The ride stopped at all-time lows for 30yr bonds and essentially all-time lows for 10yr yields as well (1.382 vs 1.381 in 2012). From there, it was merely a matter of holding on to gains while data and pre-weekend trading chipped away at them. Data actually appeared to make a dent, with ISM Manufacturing coming in at 53.2 vs 51.4 forecast. This ALMOST brought bonds back to 'unchanged' levels.
Consider the preceding statements just one more time: bonds rallied to all-time lows and stronger ISM (a historically big market mover) took us from "very green" to just "slightly green." Moral of the story: bonds are where they are for reasons that transcend domestic economic data, even though data can continue to add or removed pressure in the short-term and over smaller ranges.
MBS | FNMA 3.0 103-29 : +0-01 | ||
Treasuries | 10 YR 1.4560 : -0.0360 | ||
Pricing as of 7/1/16 3:50PMEST |