There's a fair amount on the calendar today from an objective standpoint.  The 3 headliners are ADP Employment, the Treasury refunding announcement and the 2pm Fed announcement.  It doesn't look like we're going to see much of a reaction to the first 2, which leaves only the Fed and "everything else" to move the needle.  I don't see much of a case for the Fed to rise to the occasion.

After all, what can the Fed really tell us that we don't already know? 

What we already know:

• The Fed absolutely will not hike rates today
• The Fed is on track to hike rates at the next meeting
• The balance sheet tapering continues 
• The Fed is aware of potential future impacts from any trade wars
• The Fed will acknowledge recent "base-effect" rebounds in inflation
• The Fed expects inflation to gradually increase

What they could say that we don't already know:

• Ummmmm...

Seriously though, it would be very hard for them to come up with something surprising.  Really, the only chance for a surprise is for the Fed to have gleaned a different message from some of the recent data.  That seems unlikely.  As such, a material surprise and concomitant market reaction to the Fed seems equally unlikely.  But this is the Fed we're talking about, so never say never.

As for bonds, the technical signals are growing louder and more dangerous.  With every moment that 10yr yields remain above the 2.95 technical level, it looks more and more like rates have turned 2018's previous ceiling into a floor.