Even if you're like me and have only watched survivor a few times, that's enough to understand the dynamic in bond markets today.   Bonds can "survive" by holding under 1.59% in terms of 10yr yields and they can thrive (win the immunity challenge?) by breaking below 1.52%.  They actually did have immunity for a while at the end of last week, but this has been a new week.  Specifically, they've have since spent the last 2 days rejecting that break below 1.52%.

Each new instance of major economic data between now and Friday's NFP is like another trip to tribal council.  Longer term momentum (lower pane of the following chart) is right on the edge of shifting back toward higher rates.  

The ADP Employment report just cast its vote to start the day and bonds were allowed to remain on the island.  Had ADP been in a more bullish mood, we could easily be looking at a run to the upper limits of the range.  Conversely, if ADP had tanked, we'd likely be trying to break below 1.52% again.  The day's most important data will hit at 10am with ISM Non-Manufacturing, but the final and most important votes will be cast by Friday's NFP data.

Throughout this process, keep in mind that the data would need to be very strong in order to make markets think that a Fed rate hike is more likely.  So "as-expected" data probably won't be able to cast too many votes to kick bonds off the island.