Monday is the only day of the present week without any major scheduled economic data.  After that, it's game on with the increasingly meaningful JOLTS data at 10am on Tuesday.  Wednesday's headliner in the morning hours may turn out to be the Treasury refunding announcement, but the focus will unfortunately be on the Fed announcement in the afternoon.  Why unfortunate?  Because the Fed can't really say anything we don't already know.  We're not yet at the point of Fed days yielding legitimate shifts in policy or even in the policy outlook (that was accomplished in the September and December meetings).  Then, of course, the biggest event of the week is Friday's jobs report after an opening act from ISM Manufacturing on Thursday.

In terms of market movement, bonds are increasingly looking like they've accomplished the early 2024 correction that many analysts expected as a logical conclusion to the late 2023 rally.  last week saw the narrowest range of the year so far and no new highs for Treasury yields.  That's potentially promising, but remember 2 things.  First, we had an even more compelling counterattack week 2 weeks ago. Second, the chart patterns don't really matter if the data makes a compelling suggestion about the next move.