Feel free to debate recession vs no recession amongst yourselves.  The economy is more complex than a single word, but today's GDP number says the economy contracted by 0.9% in Q2--a far cry from the +0.5% forecast.  Bonds have reacted by extending the rally to the boundary of the trading range with technicals and short-covering playing a role in additional momentum since then.

As noted in today's newly updated lock/float commentary, the longer-term floor of 2.71% in 10yr yields is being challenged today. While that's a positive development in the bigger picture, past precedent suggests remaining vigilant about a short-term bounce in the coming days. If that happens, it won't mean the rally is over, but it could take 1-3 weeks to reset the board for the next move. In any event, that next move will take guidance from inflation data.

Not even 2 hours later, bonds have already retreated back up and above 2.71%.  They were as low as 2.649 earlier this morning.