While bonds may have started the day drifting into slightly weaker territory, losses have quickly shifted to gains in the wake of this morning's big ticket data.  JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been an increasingly important report.  It will be one of the data points considered by the Fed in determining whether the labor market has softened enough to begin removing some of the "restriction" from the current monetary policy stance.  In other words, if job openings drop enough (and if other data sings a similar tune), the Fed will be wondering more about the timing of the first rate cut than the potential for another rate hike.  Today's number marked a sharp decline from last month and brings job openings to the lowest level since early 2021.

The bond market response was clear:

For what it's worth, the chart of 2yr Treasury yields wouldn't look much different apart from the values on the y-axis, but 2s have fallen more than twice as fast as 10s--an indication of the bond market reassessing the Fed's rate outlook in the coming year.