Any time bonds improve as much as they have over the past 2 days (and indeed over the past 2 months), there's a risk of a corrective bounce.  In fact, one of the core concepts of technical analysis is the notion of "overbought" vs "oversold."  There are a few ways to define these terms, but they basically define themselves.  Simply put, if traders have been doing nothing but buying bonds, it suggests an imbalance that will have to be filled by sellers. 

Unfortunately for those who wish to predict the future with momentum

The point is that we could get either outcome and we don't know which one it will be yet.  If the rally continues, stochastics will look like 2019.  If there's a corrective bounce, it will look like early 2023.  It may not be clear which version is winning until the data in the first week of January.

On a positive note, today's resilience is impressive due to the fact that bonds have an excuse to be weaker.  It's the Friday before a 3 week hibernation phase for financial markets.  This is even more palpable for bonds.  It doesn't mean no one will be trading and that yields won't be moving--simply that the movement may not be indicative of the market's true sentiment.  Lower volume and liquidity mean that fewer trades and traders are required to influence trading levels.  The "Friday before an illiquid week" part means that it would make sense for traders to be exiting long positions after a huge rally (something that should push yields higher).

NY Fed Pres Williams provided plenty of ammunition for bond sellers this morning by saying the Fed wasn't really talking about rate cuts.  There was a logical reaction initially, but then an uncanny recovery.  Needless to say, if sellers had been determined to facilitate a sincere corrective bounce, this would have been enough of a scapegoat.  The fact that we're embarking on the remainder of the day at roughly unchanged levels is evidence of just how serious the market is about trading near these levels.