2 weeks ago today, we assumed the bond market would leave the office for the holidays and reassess during the first full week of 2025. For the most part, that's how things went down. 10yr yields could have ended the week anywhere between 4.5 and 4.6 depending on this morning's data. The higher levels got the nod due to slightly stronger ISM reading. The end. Bigger movement was always most likely to be on hold until and unless the early January data makes a strong, unified case for or against the economy. The early January data in question starts to roll in throughout the week, but as always, the biggest ticket is Friday's jobs report.
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- ISM Manufacturing
- 49.3 vs 48.4 f'cast, 48.4 prev
- ISM Prices
- 52.5 vs 51.7 f'cast, 48.4 prev
- ISM Manufacturing
Sideways to slightly stronger overnight, but giving up some gains early. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.2bps at 4.561
Slightly weaker after ISM data. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.572
treading water at weakest levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.587