If you're not up to speed on a few of the funniest scenes from Monty Python and The Holy Grail, this analogy is going to be tough to follow. In the interest of not posting a link that could eventually die (you never know with copyrighted material on youtube), your best bet would be to google "Monty Python not dead yet." And if all that sounds like too much work, here's a quick recap: a man with a bell and a wooden cart full of dead bodies is making his way through plague-stricken England, periodically shouting "bring out your dead!" Another man, apparently carrying a dead body approaches to take advantage of the offer. We soon learn the apparent corpse is "not dead yet" and hilarity ensues.
Today's apparent corpse was the bond market about half an hour after today's Fed Announcement. Bonds were already in a defensive stance ahead of the Fed events and the 2pm data seemed to justify the defensiveness. The announcement itself was actually a non-issue. In fact, had that been the only data released at 2pm, there's a chance it would have resulted in a modest bond rally. Instead it was the Fed's economic projections that did the damage. Specifically, the "dots" (a tally of Fed members' rate hike forecasts) migrated dangerously close to a median view of 4 rate hikes in 2018. In short, the Fed's rate hike outlook accelerated a bit more than markets anticipated.
10yr yields were as high as 2.936 by 2:30pm--near death to be sure. As Powell began his press conference, rates began to stabilize. When Powell made a few comments that could have been interpreted in a positive way for bond markets, rates fell. Little by little, our apparent corpse piped up and made its case for staying off the death cart--at least for today.