Back to back rally days are a rarity in March. It happened one other time right at the beginning of the month and that required a frenzied Friday flight to safety amid the surge in geopolitical risk surrounding Ukraine. The following Monday saw a massive spike in oil prices, inflation expectations, and the unofficial start of the worst month for rates we've seen in a along time. The magnitude of that pain is the biggest inspiration for ground-holding attempts that have followed. With rates hitting new multi-year highs on Monday, we had another chance to embark on a technical correction. Headlines and oil prices happened to play ball and now here we are wondering if this is the bounce we've been waiting for.
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Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm
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ADP Employment 455k vs 450k f'cast, 486k prev
GDP Q4, Final 6.9 vs 7.1 f'cast, 7.0 prev
Modest rally and bounce overnight. No change after ADP data. 10yr up 1bp and 4.0 UMBS down 1 tick (0.03).
Solid buying at 10:17am with yields hitting new lows just 10:30am. 10yr down 2.4bps at 2.373. MBS up 4-6 ticks (.125-.19).
Gains stalling just after the noon hour and modest weakness since then. 10yr and MBS still in line with levels from the last update.
MBS Market Alerts
