The day began with data-driven selling pushing 10yr yields up and over the 3.60% range boundary. Jobless Claims fell noticeably, which is more important than normal considering this week's data corresponds to the survey week for the next jobs report. At the same time, the Philly Fed index, while still negative, came out higher than expected. A slew of Fed speakers reminded the market that fighting inflation is job 1 and there won't be a pause if the data suggests otherwise. As with any technical breakout, we're now looking for another day or two of selling for "confirmation."
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- Jobless Claims
- 242k vs 254k f'cast, 264k prev
- Philly Fed
- -10.4 vs -20.0 f'cast, -31.3 prev
- Leading Indicators
- -0.6 vs -0.7 f'cast, -1.2 prev
- Existing Sales
- 4.28m vs 4.35m f'cast, 4.44m prev
- Jobless Claims
slightly weaker overnight with additional losses after data. 10yr up 4.9bps at 3.621. MBS down 10 ticks (.31).
Steady weakness in a linear trend channel. MBS down almost 3/8ths. 10yr up 7bps at 3.642.
Additional losses in MBS, now down 14 ticks (.31) on the day and 7 ticks (.22) from AM highs. 10yr still at 3.642.
Selling trends continue. 10yr now up 8bps at 3.653. MBS down almost half a point.
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