Unlike yesterday, the overnight session sent bonds into domestic hours at perfectly unchanged levels. Almost all of the movement happened after the 8:30am econ data. Connecting the data to the movement takes a bit of creativity and quite a bit of sorting. We can immediately throw out the Q1 GDP data as being too stale to be relevant at this point. That leaves Durable Goods (negative revision and big miss for nondefense, ex-air) and Continuing Jobless Claims as leading contenders. Both may have contributed, but it's hard to say which contributed more. Either way, bonds rallied into the 10am hour and went sideways from there.
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- Jobless Claims
- 233k vs 236k f'cast, 239k prev
- Continued Claims
- 1839k vs 1820k f'cast, 1821k prev
- Durable Goods
- 0.1 vs -0.1 f'cast
- last month revised down to 0.2 from 0.7
- Core Durables
- -0.6 vs 0.1 f'cast, 0.3 prev
- Final Core PCE Prices Q1 (ancient history)
- 3.7 vs 3.6 f'cast
- Final GDP
- 1.4 vs 1.4 f'cast/prev
- Corp Profits
- -2.7 vs -1.7 f'cast
- Jobless Claims
Slightly stronger after AM data. 10yr down 3bps at 4.299. MBS up an eighth.
Little changed after the 7yr auction. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.279
MBS near strongest levels, up 7 ticks (.22). 10yr yields trading just under 4.29.
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