At many points in the past week, we've lamented the narrow, boring nature of the prevailing trading range. The thesis has been constant: it will take data to prompt a more meaningful move as the market trades on technicals in the meantime. Today's data did it's best to prompt a meaningful move with GDP revised up 0.6% and Jobless Claims falling most of the way back down to earth. Bonds reacted with their largest sell-off in several weeks. Ironically, because the starting point was the bottom of the range, the sell-off was only able to get yields up to the ceiling of the range.
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- Jobless Claims
- 239k vs 265k f'cast, 264k prev
- Q1 GDP
- 2.0 vs 1.4 f'cast
- GDP Final Sales
- 4.2 vs 3.5 f'cast, 1.1 prev
- Pending Home Sales
- -2.7 vs -0.5 f'cast, -0.4 prev
- Jobless Claims
Weaker overnight with additional selling after econ data. MBS down 5/8ths and 10yr up 11bps at 3.823.
Snowball selling into the 10am hour and leveling off after that. 10yr up 13.2bps at 3.846 and MBS down 5/8ths.
Still sideways at weaker levels, 10yr up 13.6bps at 3.85. MBS down 3/4ths.
Off the weakest levels, but still generally flat. 10yr up 12.4bps at 3.838. MBS down just under 3/4ths.