Changing The Narrative to Fit The Market Movement

Often, if not most of the time, one can observe the core ingredients of any given trading day and reasonably predict the nature of the bond market's reaction.  At the very least, there's a certain basic level of causality that tends to play by the rules more often than not.  For instance, if a report like ISM Manufacturing comes in weaker across the board, it's reasonable to expect bond yields to fall, all other things being equal.  To be fair, that actually happened today, but only for about 70 seconds before yields began selling off again, ultimately hitting the highest levels in more than a month.  Such a counterintuitive move sends analysts scurrying for narratives to fit the market movement.  In this case, all we have are the now familiar month-end/new-month trading patterns and "politics." The latter is a can of worms--not because of the charged nature of the topic, but because of all the ifs, thens, assumptions, and yeah buts required to to make the narrative fit.