It's beginning to look and sound a lot like the Springtime when bond analysts were making their calls for the year's highest 10yr yields.  Guesses ranged from 3-4% with the majority somewhere in the lower half of that range.  The trigger back then was a move up toward--and eventually through--the 3% level.  It's been the same story over the past few trading sessions with today finally seeing a break above 3%.

Japanese bond market weakness drove the initial move higher in the overnight session, but to be very clear, Treasuries continue to have their own reasons to sell.   That was made apparent at 8:30am, when the refunding announcement (Treasury's statement about upcoming borrowing plans) specified a neutral outlook for the weighted average maturity. 

In other words, whereas Treasury had been ramping up shorter-term debt issuance (which doesn't hurt mortgage rates or 10yr yields much), they now plan to issue debt more evenly across the curve.  This put immediate pressure on the long end of the yield curve.  Fancy words aside, 30yr yields rose more than 4bps today while 2yr yields were close to unchanged.

Away from the refunding announcement and the initial momentum related to Japan, there wasn't much else to write home about today.  The ADP employment data left bonds completely unchanged between 8:15 and 8:29am.  The 10am ISM data didn't do any better.  Even the Fed announcement fell on deaf ears, but in defense of those ears, the Fed didn't really say anything new compared to the last announcement.