Yesterday's bond market weakness introduced some risk of a technical shift back toward higher yields. Specifically, fast and slow stochastics (shorter and longer term momentum gauges) were simultaneously 'overbought' for the first time since April. Making things complicated was the fact that bonds were still showing some signs of resilience as they didn't lose too much ground despite the surge to all-time highs in the S&P.
Today proved to be too much for that resilience. The 8:20am CME open brought a noticeable imbalance of sellers vs buyers. Minutes earlier, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin commented on the potential for a trade deal with Canada by the end of the week as well as his lack of concern for the shape of the yield curve.
Neither comment was bond friendly, but it would be hard to prove those comments were any more important for traders than the simple need to make the trades they clocked-in to make--regardless of data or events. Such is "month-end" in the bond market.
About 90 minutes later, Consumer Confidence surged to the highest level in nearly 18 years. The caveat is that the gap between the "present situation" and consumers' expectations for the future continues to widen. In other words, expectations for the future are increasingly driving sentiment. Nonetheless, bonds didn't care for the bullish data and Treasuries extended their weaker run, albeit only slightly.
The rest of the day proved to be fairly uneventful with prices/yields drifting mostly sideways into the close.