It was a deceptively interesting Friday for the bond market with month-end trading creating volatility that seemed relevant at first glance. Those trades easily overshadowed the calmer market movement seen in the morning hours following the PCE data, but that was a very low bar. In the grand scheme of month-end trading days (especially those that fall on the Friday before a 3 day weekend), today's volatility was average. Next week holds far more promise to shape the debate over a 25 vs 50bp Fed rate cut and, consequently, the next big move for the bond market.
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- M/M Core PCE
- 0.2 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.2 prev
- Y/Y Core PCE
- 2.6 vs 2.7 f'cast
- Chicago PMI
- 46.1 vs 45.5 f'cast, 45.3 prev
- Consumer Sentiment
- 67.9 vs 68.0 f'cast, 66.4 prev
- 1yr inflation expectations
- down 0.1%
- M/M Core PCE
Flat overnight and modestly/paradoxically weaker after PCE data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 3.878
small but quick selling pressure just now with 10yr up 3.2bps at 3.893. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day.
Sharply weaker in the PM hours and now recovering a bit after month-end trades run their course. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr yields up 4.1bps at 3.903
MBS Market Alerts
