Remember early 2018 when the fear was compounded by this list of bad actors?

• increased Treasury issuance to pay for the revenue shortfall in the new tax bill
• the upside economic/inflation potential created by the new tax bill
• A Federal Reserve that was increasingly intent on hiking rates and increasingly willing to decrease the size of its balance sheet (aka, bond buying)
• Foreign central banks that were tiptoeing ever close to their own "taper tantrum" moments

It was enough to send 10yr yields quickly over 3% by May 2018.  Then the Italian political drama reminded markets that things could still go wrong.  Tariff uncertainty added to that sentiment and bonds sneaked through the summertime months without much of a fuss.

Enter September.  We knew September could bring a sea-change to the balance of bond buyers vs sellers and unfortunately, that is exactly what we're seeing.  Analysts and economists alike are a bit stumped by just how bad bonds have gotten this month and this week. 

But again, if we go back to early 2018 and look at the year-end guesses that many of us were making, 3.055% doesn't even seem notable.  It just seems notable coming from an August that saw yields rally moderately down to 2.80%.