Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the headline component of the big jobs report, crushed even the most bullish forecasts (336k vs 170k median forecast). In a data dependent bond market, it was no surprise to see yields spike significantly and quickly. 10s hit 4.887 at the peak. It was a surprise, however, to see a fairly substantial mid-day recovery that erased more than half of the AM losses. Unfortunately, that recovery is not attributable to any fundamental motivation in the economy or news headlines. Rather, it's likely a byproduct of trading dynamics often seen on the Friday before a 3 day weekend.
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- Nonfarm Payrolls
- 336k vs 170k f'cast, 227k prev (revised up from 187k)
- Unemployment Rate
- 3.8 vs 3.7 f'cast, 3.8 prev
- Earnings
- 0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast
- Participation rate
- unchanged at 62.8
- Nonfarm Payrolls
Hit hard after jobs data. 10yr up 11.8bps at 4.837. MBS down 5/8s.
Here's that sell-off... 10yr up 15.8bps to 4.877. MBS down 3/4
Decent little bounce. MBS down "only" half a point. 10yr up 9bps at 4.809.
Bounce back got more "decent" and has been flat all afternoon. MBS down only a quarter point. 10yr up 5.9bps at 4.778
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