Mortgage rates rose to the week's highest levels yesterday, but they moved back down today.  Although there have been slightly better days over the past 2 weeks, today's improvement is enough to keep rates in the best territory since November 2016.  For the average lender, this means top tier scenarios continue to see quotes in the high 3% range. 

In general, the expectation for more accommodative Fed policy at the next meeting (end of July) has been the primary source of inspiration for the most recent leg of 2019's already-impressive rate rally.  It's good to remember, however, that those expectations come from somewhere.  No one would expect the Fed to cut rates if inflation was higher, a US/China trade deal hammered out, or economic data coming in universally stronger.  While it's practically impossible for all of those underlying factors to reverse course overnight, there is a risk that something positive comes out of the G20 summit in the next 2 days and that next week's economic data comes in much stronger than expected.  Bottom line: there continues to be a risk of a bigger move and more volatility ahead.

Loan Originator Perspective

Rates moved slightly lower today, while still staying firmly entrenched in the recent range.  Next week's shortened sessions bring June's jobs report and more inflation data.  Clients looking to lock may want to wait until tomorrow AM to ensure they see the benefits of Thursday's advances, especially if their lender didn't reprice better this afternoon.  - Ted Rood, Senior Originator

My clients and i continue to favor locking once within 30 days of closing.  Much of the recent rate improvement is based totally on the trade war with China.  If we get news that it looks like an agreement is reached, we will give back most if not all of these recent gains.  In my opinion, you have much more to lose than to gain by floating. - Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

• 30YR FIXED - 3.875%
• FHA/VA - 3.5-3.75%
• 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.75% 
  
• 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.625-4.125% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

• Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
  
  
• The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response (and even their EXPECTED response) to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
  
  
• Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade-related concerns. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.  

• Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.