Mortgage Rates fell modestly today, but only enough to bring upfront costs slightly lower for the same rates quoted yesterday.  Still, it's a most welcome development given the abrupt spike over the past few days (relative to the recently abnormal level of calm).  That said, we can't assume that it marks a change in the broader trend.  For now, rates remain at risk of further weakness until and unless we see clear evidence to the contrary.  

Tomorrow and Friday, we'll get the week's only significant economic reports in the US, and the Bank of England will release one of its periodic policy announcements.  Central bank policy is everything when it comes to interest rates at the moment.  Domestic rates are definitely most interested in what the Fed has to say next week, but to that end, the next 2 days of economic data are doubly important.  Markets will adjust their expectations about the Fed's course of action if the data is surprising enough (for better or worse).

Bottom line, if the data is stronger than expected, the move toward higher rates could easily continue.  Floating your rate is a crap-shoot with bigger-than-normal consequences at the moment.  

Today's Best-Execution Rates

• 30YR FIXED - 3.5%
• FHA/VA - 3.0 - 3.25%
• 15 YEAR FIXED - 2.75%
  
• 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

• In the biggest of pictures, "global growth concerns" remain the driving force behind the long-term trend toward lower rates

• Amid that trend, periodic corrections toward higher rates can and will happen.  These can happen for no apparent reason, or they can be brought on by changes in expectations surrounding central bank policy at home and abroad, as well as geopolitical and systemic risks
  
  
• Time horizon and risk tolerance are 2 variables to consider when it comes to locking.  If you have plenty of time and don't mind losing some ground, set a limit as to how much higher rates could go before you'd lock to avoid further losses, and then float in the hopes of never seeing that limit.
   
• In the shorter-term, it's always good to look for lock opportunities after rates have been moving lower or sideways repeatedly, especially if they've since begun to move back up in any sort of consistent way. 
   
• As always, please keep in mind that the rates discussed generally refer to what we've termed 'best-execution' (that is, the most frequently quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers, based not only on the outright price, but also 'bang-for-the-buck.'  Generally speaking, our best-execution rate tends to connote no origination or discount points--though this can vary--and tends to predict Freddie Mac's weekly survey with high accuracy.  It's safe to assume that our best-ex rate is the more timely and accurate of the two due to Freddie's once-a-week polling method).