This old economy of ours seems to think it is going to make a run at pulling out of this recession. The ISM Non-MFG Survey index leaped to an unexpectedly high 52.0, appreciably higher than the 49.3 expectation. In addition, stocks are paring their earlier gains with the Dow now down only about 25 points.
This data is not helping the bond market. We could see MBS start to slide in the minutes just before the index was released and we are now down between 7 and 9/32nd's on the 5.5% coupon, which should hit us for anywhere between .25 and .375 YSP on this morning's rate sheets.
The only comforting thing about the rest of the day is that MBS have been holding steady now 15 minutes after the ISM release, so the rest of they is "floatable" until further notice. The 10 year treasury is tracking well with MBS this morning, so stay glued to treasuries and look for an update here for potential reprice warnings.