As mentioned, the curve has been carving out a nice trend channel since 10AM eastern.  The next 20 minutes will be crucial to validating this channel as prices are at 100-14 right now which lies on the bottom line of the channel.  If we don't sink below that, there's a good chance we'll end the day somewhere in the bulls-eye, which may be good enough for some lenders to cough up .125.

Remember, even assuming a 20% chance that the curve will be outside the channel is a risk!  Remember that since the we are historically high and since the Dow is very "sold" right now, other technicals are also weighing this curve down, so that 20% margin of error is most only the unhappy side.