Thu, Sep 3 2009, 4:41 PM
Overall it has been a slow day in the rates market. Volume in TSY futures was below average. The 10yr Dec contract held a range between 117-20 and 117...
Thu, Sep 3 2009, 2:09 PM
Q: Is the MBS market doing good or bad today?
A: Yes
At the very least, you can draw on familiarity as a positive for today. Despite the signif...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 12:40 PM
Low volume... Low volatility... Low expectations... Low pulse...
Seems like some the "mood" that could be inferred from the lead-in wouldn't be ...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 10:57 AM
If stocks go higher...expect too see profit taking in the rates market. If stocks keep bouncing around flat for the day, we still might see profit tak...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 8:18 AM
So far this AM
* ADP employment down 298k, more than expected
* Still, we're shocked ADP is even line 1 news
* Mortgage Banker's Asso...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 6:28 PM
Generally positive, with significant downside risks in the short-term, with more uncertainty than normal... That's how I'm about to describe the outl...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 4:21 PM
I'm not happy about putting out this alert... It's the last hour of a low volume rally day and we're seeing losses that would justify reprices for th...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 3:26 PM
The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting are out and though no measurable response is present in MBS, at the very least, it can be said that the p...
Wed, Sep 2 2009, 2:55 PM
Much like Monday, early morning weakness in the fixed income sector was followed by a rally later in the day in spite of better than expected economic...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 12:43 PM
After the initial knee jerk reaction to better than expected economic data, stocks rallied and the rates market sold off. However, shortly after marke...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 10:02 AM
Morning data is in....ISM Manufacturing 52.9 vs. 50.5 expected (48.9 previous), Pending Home Sales +3.2% vs. 2.0% expected (+3.6% previous), Construct...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 8:47 AM
MBS has one supportive event behind (month end index extension) and three more ahead. BEWARE: Rate sheet influential will sell off fast if benchmark y...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 4:44 PM
We're finally getting enough confirmation to begin to question the summertime range. How appropriate that the successful retest of recent highs comes...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 2:40 PM
At 1:23 PM we hit highs of the day at 100-26. Since then we're back down in a range that defines the lows of the afternoon which also coincide with t...
Tue, Sep 1 2009, 1:16 PM
Many mortgage lenders began yesterday with a conservative rates strategy after ealy weakness in the mortgage backed securities market. But as the day ...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 11:40 AM
Annnnnnd we're back to the highs of the day. The FN 4.5 is currently +0-07 at 100-13. From the 20 some odd mainstream rate sheets we've seen...mortgag...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 11:36 AM
Even though price action in the secondary market was choppy and economic reports were better than expected, conventional 30 year par mortgage rates he...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 10:08 AM
The FN 4.5 has fallen 6 ticks from a bid of 100-13 to 100-07. Currently the rate sheet influential FN 4.5 is +0-01 on the day after being as high as ...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 8:48 AM
The Week Ahead... Supportive time of month for MBS. Massive index extension means increased demand for longer life MBS (RATE SHEET INFLUENTIAL). Impli...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 5:58 PM
With prices hovering nearly a half point over par in 4.5's, these are the best levels since 7/31/09 which closed a scant 5 ticks higher at 100-20. Be...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 4:23 PM
Today's MBS rally was just too darn easy...speculative buying ahead of month index extension purchases added demand side support, then bid lists (BWIC...
Mon, Aug 31 2009, 1:38 PM
Any time charts start to take shapes similar to those seen above, reprices for the better are usually not far behind. One thing we continually mentio...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 12:46 PM
I'm not exactly sure why, but even though we WRITE as if we expect price action like today's to occur, and even though it is getting to be less and le...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 11:19 AM
Mortgage rates continue to hold steady as prices of mortgage backed securities keep to a confined range. Economic data yesterday was as expected and ...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 10:12 AM
Prior to the data release the FN 4.5 fell to an intraday low of 99-24. Usually this would warrant an MBS ALERT...but we didnt feel it was necessary, p...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 8:31 AM
After ignoring logic all week, we hope the range doesnt breakdown as traders look to return "status quo" to the rates market. This could result yields...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 5:17 PM
Cat Stevens was so close... If he had but included the word "trader's," his uber-hit could be dusted off and added to the market theme song shelf. I...
Fri, Aug 28 2009, 3:35 PM
Although we would love nothing more than to tell you that the market will happily continue to trade in this narrow region...given the current "BETTER ...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 11:42 AM
Mortgage rates haven't moved much this week as prices of mortgage backed securities continue to bounce around a range. Yesterday's highlight was the T...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 9:47 AM
Considering that the opening commentary rather casually discussed a 10 tick drop in prices, it occurs to us that this might cause a certain level of c...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 8:28 AM
* Mortgage Rate Negative outlook: holding this range in stocks makes it easier for market to accept these price valuations in the future.
* Mortg...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 5:45 PM
Another uninspiring and underwhelming day where after the customary bit of "chop-chop" (as in choppy price movements?) gives way to a fairly predictab...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 4:00 PM
From the influx of emails I received it appears many readers are reacting negatively to statements made by Richmond Fed Pres. Jeffrey Lacker this morn...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 1:55 PM
This is one of those MBS UPDATE's that was conceived as just that: a simple update on how the post-auction trading is going. Shortly before beginning...
Thu, Aug 27 2009, 1:00 PM
The Treasury Department just auctioned $28 billion 7 year notes. This is the second consecutive auction at record size, July's being the first. In tot...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 12:59 PM
The Treasury Department has successfully auctioned $39 billion 5 yr notes. This is the second auction at this record size, July being the first. The b...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 11:41 AM
Mortgages rates made modest improvements after prices mortgage backed securities managed to rally for a second straight day yesterday. Although MBS pr...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 10:11 AM
Is data driving the markets? Economic reports? Stocks are up and bonds have ticked down slightly. So does this mean that it was the better than exp...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 8:38 AM
The AM So Far...
* Tsy futures were down slightly overnight, but have since met yesterday's lowest levels
* Durable Goods up 4.9 versus +3...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 5:25 PM
MBS levels and mortgage rates take a fair amount of guidance from the shape of the yield curve. My view is that changes in the shape of the curve, and...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 3:37 PM
In the secondary mortgage market, volume was on par with the already low 30 day average. Trading flows, although balanced, once again reflected late s...
Wed, Aug 26 2009, 2:05 PM
After hitting intraday highs following the 5yr auction, rate sheet influential MBS prices fell 6 ticks (6/32) to the lows of the day. Although we are ...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 12:44 PM
Mortgage rates are holding steady even as stocks continue to make new 2009 highs. After some early morning selling pressure yesterday, prices of mortg...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 11:38 AM
Fundamentals have helped restore status quo. Fundamentals have provided a feeling that the worst of the storm is behind us. But fundamentals are unabl...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 8:27 AM
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to be Reappointed. Statement from President Obama expected at 9AM. Wall Street likes this move as it keeps those familiar wi...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 5:00 PM
Even in the time that intervened our afternoon post and the close, MBS moved yet higher and tsy's yet lower. But just as we start passing out grains ...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 3:28 PM
The charts tell the same story that we set up for this AM in that the early data had little to no impact on trading action with auction providing the ...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 1:38 PM
The Treasury Department just auctioned off a record $42 billion 2 yr notes (second auction at this amount). 92% was awarded at the high yield of 1.119...
Tue, Aug 25 2009, 1:01 PM
* High Yield of 1.119%
* 92.32 % taken at high yield
* Bid To Cover 2.68
* 48.6% indirect bid
Initial reaction in MBS is a SHORT s...
Mon, Aug 24 2009, 11:16 AM
While many market participants were enjoying time away from desks last week, we anxiously awaited some stability in the secondary mortgage market. Unf...
