What's Priced in: Current Market Expectations for Future Monetary Policy

Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for future interest rate moves as of the close on Thursday:

FED - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 12% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 16.

Markets are pricing in a 2% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in an 89% chance of a 25bp hike by June 24, 2009.

BOC - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 22% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 21.

Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of 25bp cut and a 78% chance of a 50bp cut by July 14, 2009.

BOJ - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 1% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 17.

Markets are pricing in no chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in no chance of a hike by Feb. 19, 2009.

RBA - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 7.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 92% chance of a 50bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 75bp cut and a 99% chance of a 100bp cut by May 5, 2009.

BOE - SONIA Implied Rate

Markets are pricing in a 16% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 9.

Markets are pricing in an 93% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and a 61% chance of a 75bp cut by April 9, 2009.

ECB - EONIA Implied Rate

Markets are pricing in a 2% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Oct. 2.

Markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 68% chance of a 25bp cut by April 2, 2009.