A quick note for anyone coming to the California MBA’s Western Secondary via LAX and taking a ride share to the venue: grab the lime green shuttle bus and don’t even try to request a ride until you reach the pick-up area. At roughly 700, the attendance of the WS, 26 miles across the sea from Santa Catalina, is well above last year’s. Several of the sessions discuss economics, and interest rates of course, despite everyone’s inability to predict them accurately and with consistency. There’s the old story about the economist with his head in the oven and his feet in the freezer and saying “on average” he felt great. Some ask, “Why cut interest rates? Does the U.S. economy need stimulation?” Others point to unemployment creeping up, inflation coming down, and certain economic measures slightly worsening. Last week’s podcast interview with the MBA’s Chief Economist, Dr. Fratantoni, is definitely worth a listen. Time will tell. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Candor. Candor’s authentic Expert System AI has powered more than 2 million flawless, hands off underwrites. Every credit risk decision Candor makes is backed by a Warranty, eliminating repurchase worries. Hear an interview with Broker First Funding’s Carla Meyers on the inner workings of mortgage company marketing departments.)

Lender and Broker Software, Services, and Products

Assumable mortgages are making a resurgence in today’s market conditions – and two new fee changes at the federal level create an unexpected opportunity for servicers. In a new blog, the experts at ICE Mortgage Technology detail what’s changing with those fees and the FHA and VA regulatory requirements that servicing teams must be ready to meet. The blog also explores how servicers can find a competitive edge if they are prepared to service assumable mortgages. Read the new blog here to see how you can meet the moment and make the most of these recent fee changes.

Informative Research proudly celebrates Shannon Santos, Executive Vice President of Data Solutions and Mortgage Stars Award recipient; Kelly Richards, Head of Sales Support and MPA Elite Women of 2024 honoree; and Penny Gonzalez, Vice President of Business Process and 2024 HousingWire Insider. These exceptional leaders were recognized for their innovative approaches, strategic insights, and dedication to driving excellence across risk management, client partnerships and operational efficiency. Their collective contributions have set new standards in the mortgage industry, showcasing the power of leadership in advancing industry practices. Congratulations to Shannon, Kelly, and Penny for these well-deserved accolades! Learn more about their achievements here.

Sometimes there's not a huge difference in point-of-sale software. Slick applications, doc uploads, status updates... everyone has their own flavor. But what about the ability to pick up the phone and call, or send an email to a human and have a conversation? If you run into an issue, just the ability to have someone you can rely on to help without having to call a call center or open a ticket makes a world of difference. Lenders sell that kind of service to their borrowers, it's time they get that same service from their software vendors. Check out LenderLogix, your mortgage technology partner.

“Maximize your return on every loan with Maxwell Capital. Now more than ever, lenders need solutions that allow scale while reducing operational costs and increasing revenue per loan. With Maxwell Capital, lenders can access competitive secondary market pricing on a wide array of products, including agency, jumbo and non-QM across wholesale, delegated and non-delegated delivery options. Our seasoned sales team is here to help you, including Patrick Benoist (Plains and Southeast), Molly Delaney (Midwest and Northeast), Scott Greenway (Mid-Atlantic), Matt Mead (Texas and lower Plains) and Kymberly Wright (West and Southwest), along with our National Account Managers Kayla Morrison and Stacy Hall. Schedule a call with the Maxwell team today and start doing more for your bottom line.”

“At Newrez Correspondent one of our missions is to provide meaningful products, resulting in more volume opportunities for our clients. In early August we added the HUD Section 184 Indian Home Loan Guarantee Program to our suite of products, and we expanded our multiple Co-Issue options to include the Freddie Mac Cash-Released Xchange® Program. In the near future, we will add the Freddie Mac HeritageOneSM Mortgage which is designed to finance members of federally recognized Native American tribes living in tribal areas. Contact us here to learn more and to set a face-to-face meeting at the MBA’s Annual Convention and Expo in Denver CO.”

Inc. 5000 announced UMortgage as the 88th fastest-growing company in America, highlighting its extraordinary 3,636% increase in yearly revenue in the last 3 years. This achievement underscores UMortgage’s rapid growth catalyzed by its unique, relationship-driven approach to the mortgage and homebuying process. Looking ahead, UMortgage is set to introduce AI enhancements that streamline sales processes, allow more time to focus on building relationships with borrowers & agents, and adapt to a shifting market. As rates trend lower, the company shared it expects its best years are still ahead as it anticipates $3 billion in 2024 funded volume. Read more about this accomplishment and UMortgage’s story of growth here.

Loan Officers, Are You Ready to Maximize Your Earnings? In today’s volatile market, Figure’s platform offers a winning solution. Help your customers get quick access to their equity without losing their favorable mortgage rates and secure your commissions in the process. Through extensive research and analysis of our proprietary Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) data, which represents over 100,000 households who have successfully unlocked over $10 billion in equity from their homes, Figure has identified key macro trends impacting homeownership in America today. Read the full HELOC report to get detailed insights and stay ahead in the market.

Disaster News and Updates

As homeowner’s insurance continues to be a huge burden for any owner, disasters continue throughout the year and throughout the nation. (A recent STRATMOR blog is titled “Catastrophe and Climate Risk is Only Increasing.”) Of course, FEMA’s Disaster Declarations set the stage for servicers, lenders, and investors to change policies and procedures for loans in process or for existing borrowers in those areas.

Earlier this year, waters in the tropical portion of the Atlantic Ocean, around the Caribbean, were hotter than they have been for any other late May on record. The area is averaging around 84.7 degrees Fahrenheit, a temperature the waters usually don't hit until August and September after a summer of warming up. This is bad for a lot of reasons, including the future of coral reefs, which are already experiencing a fourth global bleaching event this year, according to NOAA. The previous record-breaking May for sea temperatures in the area was in 2005, a notorious year that brought one of the most destructive and active hurricane seasons ever for the U.S.

Warmer temperatures on land impact flora and fauna. Try living in a home without air conditioning, or with air conditioning when the power goes out. The USDA recently released a plant hardiness zone map as much of the country has, on average, gotten warmer. The new 30-year minimum temperature average was 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the previous average. The map classifies the U.S. into zones based on an area’s average annual minimum temperature and is most useful for knowing which perennial outdoor plants will possibly not die in your area if you keep them outside. You can and will still kill your plants even if you plant according to the map, since it does not factor in how wet, dry, or volatile your area’s climate is. It also won’t tell you if your plants can actually survive the extreme heat of summer.

There’s the South Dakota Disaster Declaration DR-4807-SD and the Florida Disaster Declaration DR-4806-FL. On 8/15/2024, with DR-4807, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance has been made available to Davison, Lincoln, Turner, and Union counties of South Dakota. View AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20240806-CL for inspection requirements.

On 8/10/2024, with DR-4806, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to Florida counties affected by Hurricane Debby from 8/1/2024 and continuing. View AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20240803-CL.

PHH Mortgage posted announcements regarding new disaster declarations for Florida DR-4806

And South Dakota DR-4807.

Texas Hurricane Beryl DR-4798-TX | Minnesota Severe Storms and Flooding DR-4797-MN

On 8/2/2024, with Amendment No. 3 to DR-4798, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance to 5 additional Texas counties affected by Hurricane Beryl from 7/5/2024, to 7/9/2024. See AmeriHome Mortgage 20240801-CL Disaster Announcement for inspection requirements.

Go to the PHH Mortgage library to view disaster declared counties, requirements, procedures, and conditions including initial Minesota counties declaration with FEMA’s DR-4797.

Capital Markets

Last week’s economic data seemed to ease the market’s fears of an imminent recession: business optimism continues to climb, and consumers continue to spend. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July posted the fourth straight increase to register at its highest level since early 2022. Consumer prices rose 0.2 percent in July, which was in line with analysts’ expectations, however the gain was almost entirely in the shelter and motor vehicle insurance components. Inflation remains a top concern amongst consumers. Meanwhile, industrial production fell 0.6 percent in July as firms are waiting for clarity around the direction and degree of monetary policy changes before investing in capital intensive projects.

Housing is seeing a similar pattern as housing starts and applications for building permits both saw sharp declines in July. Total housing starts declined 6.8 percent month-over-month (and down 16 percent from a year ago) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.238 million units. That’s over 100k less than predicted and the lowest level since May of 2020. Single-unit starts were down 14.1 percent to 851k. Building permits were down 4.0 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.396 million, with single-unit permits down 0.1 percent. Hurricane Beryl was not responsible for the decline in single-unit starts and permits in the West.

Higher rates are acting as a constraint and less restrictive monetary policy should eventually provide a lift. The Mortgage Bankers Association Builder Application Survey data for July 2024 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 9.4 percent compared to a year ago. Compared to June 2024, applications increased by 9 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.

This week features multiple Fed speakers, including a speech from Chairman Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday that will have analysts looking for hints as to the path of monetary policy for the remainder of the year and into the next. Data is more of the second-tier variety, including flash August PMIs from S&P Global. Treasury supply also resumes with $16 billion new 20-year bonds and $8 billion reopened 30-year TIPS being auctioned. And Class D 48-hours for MBS is tomorrow. The economic calendar begins after the release of this commentary, and includes remarks from Fed Governor Waller, July leading indicators, and a couple of short-duration Treasury auctions. We start the week with Agency MBS prices roughly unchanged from last week’s closing levels, the 10-year yielding 3.87 after closing last week at 3.89 percent, and the 2-year at 4.04.