Thu, Sep 24 2009, 8:43 AM
Good Morning. The rate sheet influential FN 4.5 MBS coupon is mostly unchanged on the day to slightly improved this morning. Stocks have reacted posit...
Thu, Sep 24 2009, 5:06 PM
It's not so much that the past three days have been remarkably good for MBS prices, but rather that an extended period of relatively stable bullishnes...
Thu, Sep 24 2009, 3:19 PM
Someone snuck into bond market central today and stole the volatility right out from under our noses. Afternoon trading ranges have adhered beautiful...
Thu, Sep 24 2009, 1:02 PM
The Treasury Department has successfully auctioned $29 billion 7 year notes at a high yield of 3.005% vs. the 1pm WI of 3.033%. 30.22% of the bids wer...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 11:09 AM
RANGE BOUND RANGE BOUND RANGE BOUND!!!!! The FN 4.5 has traded as low as 100-11 and as high as 100-18....trading flows are all quiet ahead of the FOMC...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 8:40 AM
The mortgage market is in "wait and see" mode ahead of the FOMC statement. The 10yr Treasury note is at the high side of the recent range, currently t...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 5:18 PM
We're sorry, we know the constant RANGE BOUND RANGE BOUND RANGE BOUND can be frustrating at times...but look at the bright side, at least we didnt bre...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 2:17 PM
So far, getting the expected bounce from a neutral to potentially bond friendly FOMC statement. As we discussed, most pre-statement concessionary sel...
Wed, Sep 23 2009, 1:02 PM
* $40 bln in 5 year notes
* 2.47 high yield with 40% taken at high yield
* significantly higher than WI yield
* Bid to Cover - 2.4
...
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 11:23 AM
The dollar is weaker, oil is more expensive, gold has traded up to $1,019 after falling below $1,000 yesterday, and stocks are testing new 2009 highs....
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 8:48 AM
MBS trading flows are expected to slow as the two day FOMC meeting begins today. Thus, MBS price action will be left at the mercy of the gyrations of ...
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 4:55 PM
You might notice the title of today's MBS CLOSE doesn't include "MBS CLOSE." Considering AQ's afternoon commentary pretty much covers it for today an...
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 3:19 PM
Activity in the rates market has slowed following the 2yr note auction....even before then there wasnt much to discuss. This was expected as traders g...
Tue, Sep 22 2009, 1:02 PM
* High Yield of 1.034
* 27.16% taken at high
* WI yield was around .967
* Bid To Cover 3.23
* Indirect Bid of $19.18 bln out of $...
Mon, Sep 21 2009, 11:32 AM
The FN 4.5 is trading +0-07 at 100-22 yielding 4.378% and the FN 4.0 is +0-10 at 98-07. Friday afternoon price weakness did not carry over into today...
Mon, Sep 21 2009, 8:45 AM
Global stocks are mostly lower. Dollar stronger, Oil cheaper (under $70 barrel), Gold cheaper (under $1,000). No US econ data. US stock futures lower...
Mon, Sep 21 2009, 5:03 PM
Trying to find meaningful topics of conversation on interest rates beyond the customary treatment of the technical trading range is a tall order. Alt...
Mon, Sep 21 2009, 2:42 PM
Price levels in both MBS and tsy's are getting "testy" (in the sense that both are testing their most significant resistance levels of the month. But ...
Mon, Sep 21 2009, 1:21 PM
Although anything over 100-12 leaves us in the long term horizontal range, albeit on the low-side, any time we cross the lows of the day, reprices are...
Fri, Sep 18 2009, 11:51 AM
While stocks have moved aimlessly higher and lower today, the bond market has continued to chop around its recent range. The 10 yr note hit 3.37% over...
Fri, Sep 18 2009, 8:35 AM
Recap of Previous Session:
* healthy rally for MBS and tsy's with 4.5 fannies up 16 ticks (half a point)
* All this despite better than ex...
Fri, Sep 18 2009, 5:01 PM
If you were around much over the last 3 months, this week should look familiar. The patterns are, for the most part, similar, though this week's per...
Fri, Sep 18 2009, 3:42 PM
Chop Chop Choparoo! Looks like the days that have been light on data this week have also led to the most severe losses in bonds. I'd urge you though...
Fri, Sep 18 2009, 1:22 PM
Volume is low and trading is slappity choppity sloppity. The 10yr JUST broke intraday resistance and the chances are increasing of a reprice for the ...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 12:17 PM
The secondary mortgage market is in cruise control...the Fed continues to provide 2x liquidity for any originator looking to sell, yield spreads are a...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 8:33 AM
After 830am data, stock futures are lower. TSY futures are higher. Cash market 10 yr note hit 3.50% before falling back to 3.47%....in futures 3.50 co...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 6:39 PM
About half a facemelter in both MBS and tsy's today as MBS got half a point and tsy's another 4-6 ticks beyond that. As AQ pointed out in the previou...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 3:57 PM
Mortgages continue to trade well in both price (yay for loan officers) and in relative value (yield spreads tighter and tighter...OAS negative) This r...
Thu, Sep 17 2009, 2:10 PM
As stocks continued a trend of selling that began shortly before the noon hour, bonds have rallied with MBS reaching up to familiar levels. The 4.5 i...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 11:51 AM
As we discussed earlier, the AM data crushed the bond market sending MBS from 100-26 to 100-08. For those without calculators or excellent mental mat...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 9:33 AM
Stocks are loving the anti-deflation data this AM. At the 930 opening bell, stocks are making new 2009 highs again...and the bond market is suffering....
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 8:41 AM
Following the data, the 10yr yield rose, but quickly fell back to 3.39, but failed to test morning yield lows.The FN 4.5 fell (price) after the data, ...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 7:36 PM
Although the rates market put up a good fight today, in the end there were just too many factors working against our cause (lower mortgage rates!). In...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 4:01 PM
The post 3pm trade in MBS and Tsy's is showing it's characterstic signs of waning participation as volatility and volume decrease. But unlike some ot...
Wed, Sep 16 2009, 2:31 PM
Chopatility is chop-chop-chopping away at our level of confidence regarding the possibility of you making it through the rest of the day without seein...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 11:03 AM
Prices of "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons have bounced around a chopatile range this morning. We took a nose dive after 830 data, then started re...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 8:31 AM
830 data was not bond friendly. PPI higher than expected, retail sales and NY Manufacturing better than anticipated. The 10 yr TSY note yield rose fro...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 5:03 PM
The day closed out remarkably well considering the data this AM, it's immediate effects, and the conclusions that could have easily been drawn after c...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 3:53 PM
Despite better than expected econ data (plus Bernanke's comments), rallying stocks, a weaker dollar, more expensive oil, and gold moving back into fou...
Tue, Sep 15 2009, 1:00 PM
After falling abruptly this AM on better than expected economic data, the range in MBS and tsy's moderated into levels that left fannie 4.5's down onl...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 11:42 AM
Much rumor is circulating around the investment community that the US-Chinese trade war issue has been a money moving "event" this morning. I am not s...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 8:41 AM
So far this AM
* Long end the of yield curve not doing so well with 10's down 12 ticks (3.39 yield) and 30 yr down 26 ticks (yield 4.23)
*...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 5:02 PM
It might as well have been a Friday... The characteristic pattern of gains in the AM turning into linear losses by the close is all too familiar. At...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 3:52 PM
The empty data calendar combined with "already been heard" Fed speak plus a little "nothing new" from President Obama created a VERY SLOW trading envi...
Mon, Sep 14 2009, 2:05 PM
There is such a lack of relevant data today that all we really have to discuss at the moment are today's various speeches. Most recently, Richmond Fe...
Fri, Sep 11 2009, 12:13 PM
MBS trading is slow moving this morning as participants are generally focused on the settlement process and the inescapable inclination to honor the l...
Fri, Sep 11 2009, 8:41 AM
MBS trading slow during settlement. Benchmark big brothers are leading MBS prices higher. Expect MBS to lag TSY rally...especially with prices and rel...
Fri, Sep 11 2009, 4:59 PM
At the end of trading today, the 10 yr note was up a full 100% more than 4.5 MBS!!! Then again, that was only a 2 tick gain in the 10yr versus the 1 ...
Fri, Sep 11 2009, 2:58 PM
Cue the Friday music. You know the song... The one where low volume, liquidity, and overall participation precipitate price movements that outly a m...
Thu, Sep 10 2009, 11:20 AM
The reprice alert siren has been turned off. The FN 4.5 bounced at 100-28 and is now currently trading at 101-00...still off the highs of the day. Cho...
MBS Market Alerts
