Mon, Aug 3 2009, 12:08 PM
Beyond stop out selling...activity in the 10 yr TSY note has been somewhat subdued today. Here is a chart of the 10 yr TSY Sept. Futures contract. Not...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 10:09 AM
After the ISM manufacturing PMI number came in higher than expected (48.9 vs. 46.2)...the 10 yr TSY yield rose from 3.56 to 3.62 and the "rate sheet ...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 8:28 AM
Recap Of Previous Session
* Very Stable, Very Nice Friday Rally took us nearly as high as we've been since Black Wednesday
* Stocks gained...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 6:04 PM
Strong Chinese manufacturing data followed by a better than expected Eurozone PMI print coupled with "recession may be over" comments from Alan Greens...
Mon, Aug 3 2009, 2:45 PM
You would expect all hell to be breaking loose in TSYs given the dollar weakness and optimism in equities, however we are just kinda hanging out at th...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 12:56 PM
Happy Friday...
This is simply a chart illustrating the continued rally in MBS and Treasuries. This puts us on the high side of this week's trend ch...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 11:08 AM
As originators scramble with last minute closings (not so much with new TIL) there has been an end of month hustle and bustle about the MBS market thi...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 8:30 AM
Yesterday's Recap
* 7yr Auction much better than previous auctions this week.
* Good midday support from internal trendlines
* MBS fo...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 5:02 PM
Have you noticed a lack of MBS specific analysis lately?
We havent been discussing MBS duration or educating on embedded options. We've left out sp...
Fri, Jul 31 2009, 3:03 PM
Answer: When prices are better by half a point on the day with absolutely no volatility...
The half point improvement portion of the above answer i...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 11:46 AM
One has to assume that, based on the results of the previous three auctions (good demand for 20 YR TIPS, crappy demand for saturated 2s market, crapp...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 10:21 AM
Although many might expect the stock rally to cause chaos in the TSY market as portfolio allocations favor riskier stocks....the 10 yr is holding stea...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 8:27 AM
Recap Of Last Session
* Durable goods weaker than expected, lends to early fixed income strength
* Once again, bonds rallied into a tsy au...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 5:17 PM
If no one else, you can always count on us to point out when we were right.
At 2:15 PM we gave you the following chart before any bounce had occurr...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 3:16 PM
Although only status quo has bee kept...STATUS QUO HAS BEEN KEPT....all while stocks made new 2009 highs. Benchmark big brother TSYs and "rate sheet i...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 1:48 PM
Some traditional post auction volatility has entered the scene. As stocks have continued to move higher and profits have been taken, we've seen a ret...
Thu, Jul 30 2009, 1:02 PM
Mixed signals from the 7yr Auction results as the high yield was 6bps over current trading with 91% coming in at high. At face value, not so good, bu...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 10:52 AM
Volatility is an angry animal...especially when the market is poking and prodding at a wide range of resistance and support levels. Dont get caught up...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 8:44 AM
* MBS gained moderately yesterday despite drama
* Stocks were actually down. Wait... What?
* 2 yr auction not well received by bond market...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 5:08 PM
Pete Townshend certainly seemed like he was confident about something in one his more popular songs... Perhaps when we ask ourselves "Who" knows what...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 2:37 PM
Following the crappy 5 yr note auction....the long end of the yield curve sold off and "rate sheet influential" MBS prices ticked considerably lower. ...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 1:14 PM
Putting another 10 minutes between us and the auction has allowed more of the characteristic volatility to play out. See below that the 10 yr immedia...
Wed, Jul 29 2009, 1:02 PM
We'll get charts to you momentarily, but at a 1.92 Bid to cover and continuing underwhelming foreign support, the 5yr auction that just went off did n...
Tue, Jul 28 2009, 10:34 AM
Although a rally has ensued on the long end of the yield curve and prices "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons are moving higher....the FN 4.5 is up 1...
Tue, Jul 28 2009, 8:19 AM
* Horrible volume yesterday, no data, and market waiting for today's auction
* MBS outperformed treasuries
* Tsy's Lost Big, MBS just a few ...
Tue, Jul 28 2009, 5:05 PM
That's right... It's a trader's world...
Let's take a look at why we say that and what happened this AM. What did we have? Some very minor overn...
Tue, Jul 28 2009, 3:42 PM
In MBS world, volume was yet again below average. Originator selling was minimal...anything that was offered up was easily absorbed by the Fed, helpin...
Tue, Jul 28 2009, 1:56 PM
The FN 4.5 current coupon has fallen from the 100-00 intraday high alllllllll the way back to 99-16....just one tick higher than yesterday's going out...
Tue, Jul 28 2009, 1:06 PM
High Yield - 1.08, 4 ticks higher than WI
21.59% at high yield, which lessens the impact of the 4bp tail
2.75 Bid To Cover - Not Bad Not Good
...
Mon, Jul 27 2009, 10:46 AM
In the MBS market, trading flows are quiet. This implies mortgage-backs will take their directional guidance from the gyrations of the yield curve...w...
Mon, Jul 27 2009, 8:36 AM
* Decent Data and Boomy Stocks Brought The Pain Last Week
* Another round of auctions coming this week contributed as well
* Negative Tsy se...
Mon, Jul 27 2009, 5:19 PM
Know how much you guys hate sell-off days? That's about how much we hate days like today when nothing happens, prices are rangebound, there is no vol...
Mon, Jul 27 2009, 3:55 PM
TSYs and Mortgages have both remained range bound all afternoon as the market awaits midweekTSY auctions. Beyond early morning commotion volume in bot...
Mon, Jul 27 2009, 1:19 PM
"Low Volume" is actually insufficient to describe today's apathy. Even against the backdrop of recent summer weeks--where volume has been characteris...
Fri, Jul 24 2009, 11:19 AM
With stocks sending mixed signals and TSY supply on the calendar next week..."WAIT AND SEE" mentality prevails. Looks like we are setting up to end th...
Fri, Jul 24 2009, 8:35 AM
* If you had a nickel for every time you'll hear "fresh supply concerns" today...
* Tsy borrowing needs $115bln vs expected $111 plus all manner ...
Fri, Jul 24 2009, 5:15 PM
The week began quiet and without guidance as markets waited for much-needed clues to come from Bernanke in his semiannual report to congress on Tuesda...
Fri, Jul 24 2009, 3:52 PM
These are all things you will not have to worry about on an afternoon such as this, plagued by not one, but three of the accelerants stoking soporific...
Fri, Jul 24 2009, 1:27 PM
Trading flows are slow as market participants make an early attempt at the exits. The 10 yr TSY yield has been in a 2bp range all day while the FN 4.5...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 10:53 AM
As stocks have kicked into overdrive with the Dow cresting 9000 and the S&P flirting with 970's, the 10yr Tsy has backed up to the 3.6's and 4.5's are...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 9:36 AM
The S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ have all opened to the upside. As stocks futures ticked higher, the long end of the yield curve (TSYs) began to show weaknes...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 8:38 AM
* Jobless Claims rose to 554k from 522k last week. Estimates called for 560k.
* Continuing claims continued to decrease (from 6.32 to 6.225 mln)...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 5:22 PM
As reactions to the economic data gradually improved and were compounded by next week's tsy supply being announced at $115 bln versus an expected $111...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 3:04 PM
Illustrating the buying and selling behavior of market participants at specific price points. What is currently considered cheap? What price levels ar...
Thu, Jul 23 2009, 1:52 PM
Though 99-19 has provided great support all day, in the past few minutes we've broken through by a big enough margin that not only may lenders be cons...
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 12:13 PM
Slow trading flows in the secondary mortgage market are not stopping some lenders from passing through a few more bps onto rate sheets this morning. W...
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 8:42 AM
Yesterday's Recap
* Ben catalyzed technical rally in Tsy's and MBS
* Stocks gained as well with SandP now over 950 two days in a row
...
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 6:16 PM
In MBS LUNCH I wrote that a feeling risk aversion was beginning to set in over the marketplace as overvalued stocks were showing signs that the rally...
Wed, Jul 22 2009, 1:40 PM
ALERT alert: volume also nonexistent in the TSY market...I mean this has turned into a real snoozer as traders happily.....WAIT AND SEE!!! That said l...
Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:37 AM
This MBS rally is not a function of greater demand for mortgage-backs, it is not a factor of a rejuvenated bid side mortgage buying presence...the pri...
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