Tue, Sep 24 2024, 4:46 PM
Early Weakness Erased After Labor Market Warning Signs
The first few hours of domestic trading caused some c...
Tue, Sep 24 2024, 10:50 AM
Monday's trading session offered some hope that the post-Fed correction was losing steam, but purely from a technical standpoint. All we really know ...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 4:57 PM
Post Fed Correction Leveling Off?
Based on the weakness in the bond market this morning, it looked as if the...
Mon, Sep 23 2024, 10:42 AM
We closed last week with the idea of "buy the rumor, sell the news" seemingly being a good way to think about the time leading into and away from the ...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 4:20 PM
Modestly Weaker But Ultimately Uneventful
In terms of the realized volatility relative to potential volatili...
Fri, Sep 20 2024, 10:32 AM
Wednesday's Fed rate cut was the worst kept secret in the financial world for months, and the 50bp rate cut was increasingly suspected in the week lea...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 4:02 PM
MBS Easily Outperform Longer-Term Treasuries
Few market watchers would have guessed that MBS would have held...
Thu, Sep 19 2024, 3:37 PM
The post-Fed overnight session was surprisingly calm. In fact, relative to the magnitude of yesterday's events and information, this is surely one of...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Lose Ground Despite Larger Fed Rate Cut
The Fed was either going to cut 0.50% or 0.25% today. It o...
Wed, Sep 18 2024, 9:31 AM
There is special providence in a 50bp Fed rate cut. If it be now, 'tis not to come (until the next Fed meeting perhaps). If it be not to come, it wi...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 3:39 PM
What Matters in Wednesday's Fed Announcement?
The ongoing disagreement in the market regarding the size of W...
Tue, Sep 17 2024, 11:30 AM
This morning's Retail Sales headline was stronger than expected, but the sub-components (analogous to something like core CPI as opposed to headline C...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 4:04 PM
Just Another Day of Waiting
Bonds started stronger, retraced back to 'unchanged' following the manufacturing...
Mon, Sep 16 2024, 12:06 PM
So far in the new week, bonds have rallied a bit in the overnight session and sold off a bit after this morning's stronger NY Fed Manufacturing data. ...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 4:16 PM
Fed Week Uncertainty Makes For Logical Consolidation
Bonds rallied sharply just over a month ago following a...
Fri, Sep 13 2024, 10:39 AM
Today's only potentially relevant economic data was the 10am Consumer Sentiment data. This report comes out twice a month, once in "preliminary" form...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 4:34 PM
Modest Resistance, But No Big Bad Correction
Unless Friday's Consumer Sentiment data manages to surprise in ...
Thu, Sep 12 2024, 10:43 AM
Thursday brings this week's last opportunity for the market to react to moderately important economic data before next week's Fed announcement. So fa...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 3:42 PM
Does Today's Inflation Data Change Anything?
Bonds initially sold off following the higher-than-expected cor...
Wed, Sep 11 2024, 11:37 AM
Heading into today's CPI data, there were valid doubts about the data's role as one of the two biggest market movers (the jobs report being the other)...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 4:26 PM
Will The Market Still Care About CPI?
Ask anyone who's been following the rate market for many years what th...
Tue, Sep 10 2024, 10:36 AM
The new week is off to a nice, anti-climactic start. Monday morning's yields were slightly higher at first but fell into stronger territory by mid da...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 4:15 PM
Holding Last Week's Gains as Bonds Wait For Actionable Info
Monday was an anticlimactic session relative to ...
Mon, Sep 9 2024, 11:21 AM
Despite heavy volume and volatility, Friday's trading session managed to conclude in roughly sideways territory. The new week is starting off on a ca...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 5:33 PM
Wild Ride on Jobs Day as Fed Speakers Steal The Show
We came into jobs report day expecting some clarity on ...
Fri, Sep 6 2024, 10:55 AM
At first glance, this morning's jobs report suggested a modest but clearly-defined increase in the likelihood of a 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 wee...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 4:54 PM
Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut
Thursday ended up being fairly uneventful for bo...
Thu, Sep 5 2024, 12:03 PM
Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 4:20 PM
Persistent Rally After Data. More Data Ahead
Wednesday ended up being almost exclusively about the Job Openi...
Wed, Sep 4 2024, 12:09 PM
Market movement continues suggesting increased focus on labor-related economic data. This morning's JOLTS (job openings and labor turnover survey) is...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 4:03 PM
No Major Reaction to Data, But Data Remains Relevant
As with most "first weeks of the month," this one has p...
Tue, Sep 3 2024, 10:28 AM
Remember last Friday? It was sort of "weird" due to enigmatic selling pressure in the bond market. Yields stretched up to the highest levels in more ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 4:31 PM
Month-End Volatility, But No Bearing on Bigger Picture
It was a deceptively interesting Friday for the bond ...
Fri, Aug 30 2024, 9:14 AM
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations calling for a core monthly reading of 0.2%. In fact, the unrounded number was 0.16+ w...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 5:00 PM
A Clear Reaction to Data Without Any Major Drama
After this morning's initial reaction to Initial Jobless Cl...
Thu, Aug 29 2024, 10:25 AM
There was a solid decade between 2010 and 2020 where weekly Jobless Claims data was completely inconsequential. The labor market had taken the hit fr...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 4:09 PM
Without Major Data, Bonds Remain Quiet
While it makes riveting analysis a challenge, it's not necessarily a ...
Wed, Aug 28 2024, 11:22 AM
It would have been hard for the present week to be any more of a boring, sideways grind than the previous week, but so far, so boring! Why do we say ...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 5:12 PM
MBS Continue to Outperform, Sorta
Despite a nice little rally from weaker opening levels to stronger closing...
Tue, Aug 27 2024, 10:13 AM
Bonds are under a bit of pressure this morning with a modest extension of weakness that began in European trading hours. While this morning's selling...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 5:00 PM
Uneventful Monday Despite AM Volatility
Durable goods data made for a semblance of volatility this morning, ...
Mon, Aug 26 2024, 9:10 AM
The Durable Goods report is a somewhat inconsistent report in terms of its ability to influence the bond market. There are definitely examples of big...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 4:25 PM
Closing Near Week's Best Levels
If Friday was going to offer any example of scheduled events causing movemen...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 10:19 AM
It's been a slow, uneventful week so far in terms of scheduled events. Even though we certainly saw some elevated volume and volatility over the past...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 5:08 PM
It May Have Seemed Like a Bad Day, But...
Ever since topping out last Thursday morning, bonds have been stea...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 10:20 AM
There is an ongoing bias toward better buying and lower yields in the bond market in spite of a string of decent economic reports in the past week. J...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:19 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes
At first glance, and based on conventional wisdom, today's most relevant ca...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 12:18 PM
Today brought the release of the first benchmark revision to the payroll data through March 2024. It caused widespread confusion both before and afte...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:17 PM
What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions?
When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 10:09 AM
While there will certainly be some excitement at some point in the future (possibly even the near future), and while we are already well acquainted wi...
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