Mon, Feb 5 2024, 3:23 PM
Big Losses Get Bigger After ISM Data
Bonds sold off again today, but this time in several distinct waves. T...
Mon, Feb 5 2024, 9:55 AM
The bond market continues providing a great example big movement in the "little picture." Right out of the gate, if we examine just a slightly bigger...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Was The Jobs Report Real and What Are The Lasting Implications?
Is Friday's NFP number of 353k versus a 180k...
Fri, Feb 2 2024, 12:43 PM
It's not really an exaggeration to say "no one saw it coming" with respect to this morning's jobs report. NFP hit 353k versus a forecast of 180k. 10...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 4:08 PM
Best Levels in More Than a Month Ahead of Jobs Report
At one point this morning, 10yr yields were close to b...
Thu, Feb 1 2024, 12:03 PM
It is undoubtedly ironic that the Fed just removed a sentence that had been in the statement since March 2023 regarding the banking system being sound...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 5:18 PM
Lots of Volatility But Not Much to Do With The Fed
Today was indeed a Fed day and bonds definitely have a tr...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. been expanding at a solid pace. ...
Wed, Jan 31 2024, 12:09 PM
In an interesting turn of events this morning, the Treasury refunding announcement has taken a back seat to econ data which has, in turn, taken a back...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:17 PM
Nice bounce back after AM Weakness
Job openings came in higher than expected this morning and immediately pu...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 12:39 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) didn't used to matter to the bond market. That changed rather abruptly in the past 2 years as mark...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:37 PM
Solid Start But Data Dependent
Bonds started the day in slightly stronger territory with gains in both Asia ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 12:16 PM
Monday is the only day of the present week without any major scheduled economic data. After that, it's game on with the increasingly meaningful JOLTS...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 3:00 PM
Uneventful Week. How About The Next One?
Sure... rates moved a bit higher this week as the bond market cont...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 11:34 AM
Once upon a time, the bond market looked to the PCE inflation data as the definitive measurement of the Fed's success regarding the 2% target. One ...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 3:27 PM
What's Up With Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger GDP?
We're not huge fans of the GDP report as a consistent ma...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 11:26 AM
Today's slate of economic data was/is the biggest of the week, by far. Results were mixed at 8:30am with higher jobless claims and weaker durable goo...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:18 PM
Weak Data, Weak Auction, Weak Bonds
The simplest way to view today's moderate bond market weakness is as a p...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:43 AM
For the first time this week, the economic calendar is not completely empty. Granted, the S&P Global PMI data is not the heaviest of hitters, but it ...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:48 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
Monday saw the lowest volume and lightest volatility of the year so far, but Tuesday turne...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 11:06 AM
As the market waits for next Wednesday's Fed announcement, there are a few other central bank updates to digest. This week's examples include the Eur...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 4:58 PM
Modest Gains. No Particular Reason
The week got off to a slow start as far as the bond market was concerned....
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 12:17 PM
While bonds are starting the domestic session in slightly stronger territory and holding sideways so far, the broader trend is still toward higher yie...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 4:54 PM
Negative Trend Intact For Now
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and F...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 1:33 PM
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and Friday provides the latest evidence. While we're content to view most of...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Simple, Logical Cause and Effect
Things have been fairly boring for the bond market recently. We're in a ho...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 12:23 PM
It's a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. In a time when day to day movement is highly data dependent, we continue to see logical reac...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:53 PM
Bonds Reacting to Data. Is It Justified?
Retail Sales came out at 0.6 vs a median forecast of 0.4 and rates...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 12:32 PM
This week's only major economic report arrived this morning and it wasn't good for bonds. December's retail sales came out at 0.6% versus a median fo...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:35 PM
Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher
The most hotly anticipated calendar event at the start of this ho...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 11:34 AM
While last week saw a generally narrow range, bonds managed to reverse two weeks of losses with 10yr yields moving down from 4.05 to 3.95. The gains ...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
Good Week For Bonds. Next One Could be Interesting
The bond market traded about as well as anyone could have...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 10:33 AM
PPI (Producer Price Index) measures inflation at the wholesale level. It is not known or respected as being a reliable or significant market mover, b...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 4:33 PM
What's Up With Wild Reaction to CPI?
For the level of anticipation heading into it, today's CPI release was ...
Thu, Jan 11 2024, 12:20 PM
The initial reaction to this morning's CPI data has been mixed with weakness initially and now some resilience. Treasuries are underperforming, partl...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:41 PM
At Least We Won't Be Waiting For CPI Anymore
The present week has been a bit boring, for lack of a gentler t...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 12:34 PM
Last Friday's data (jobs report and ISM) marked the last significant calendar event until this week's CPI, due out tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The interve...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:28 PM
Even Narrower Sideways Grind; No Reaction to Auction
Friday's trading session set a reasonably wide range re...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 11:12 AM
An uneventful overnight session has given way to roughly unchanged levels at the start of another day without CPI. The first 3 days of this week are ...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:16 PM
Range Finding Ahead of Auctions and CPI
The start of the new week saw bonds start at unchanged levels, rally...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 12:19 PM
Bonds ended the previous week at the highest yields since before the December Fed announcement. The story behind the that story is that yields were r...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:17 PM
ISM Outshines NFP, But Neither Ended Up Leaving a Mark
It has happened before, but it's not common: those Fr...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 12:35 PM
Friday is off to a mixed start with the jobs report doing some damage and the ISM Services data undoing that damage. Things are pretty much that simp...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:30 PM
Lots at Stake With Friday's Jobs Report
Thursday's trading session provided an unpleasant but worthwhile rem...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 12:14 PM
Wednesday's data was helpful for the bond market--even if only modestly. Today's is the opposite. The weakness began in Europe with a swath of PMI r...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 5:21 PM
Proof of Data Dependent Concept
The first two days of the new year were shaping up to paint an unpleasant pi...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:47 AM
As long ago as December 14th, we've had our eye on today's 10am economic data as the next reasonably important moment for the bond market. There simp...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Bond Selling Suggests Caution, But We're Still Data Dependent
The bond market started off the new year with ...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 12:18 PM
Hindsight is frequently 20/20 when discussing recent market movement and this morning's weakness is an example that's worth considering. Heading into...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:32 PM
Uneventful End to an Eventful Year
2023 may be a year that we won't soon forget, but the past two weeks have...
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