Mon, Nov 4 2024, 11:50 AM
Someone’s making money out there, right? Freddie and Fannie continue to earn billions, with a good chunk coming from g-fee income, and see hundreds of...
Mon, Nov 4 2024, 10:08 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr Treasury yields had consistently closed at 4.27-4.28 last week. Now this morning, we're at 4.27-4.28 again. That's the sh...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 5:07 PM
Why Bonds Tanked Despite Super Low NFP
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 12k versus a median forecast of 113...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 4:50 PM
It is our longstanding policy to strictly avoid politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for ra...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 11:21 AM
Not only do most states “gain an hour” Sunday, but I have good news for all my readers. I am getting stronger with age. I can now lift $100 worth of g...
Fri, Nov 1 2024, 10:06 AM
When the median forecast for today's jobs report began circulating, many a market watcher felt that the 113k forecast was too low compared to the 254k...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 4:53 PM
Will Jobs Data Finally Get Bond Market's Attention?
It's been a weird week so far with a crazy combination o...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 3:35 PM
Mortgage rates rates moved moderately higher today, and while that leaves the average 30yr fixed rate only slightly higher than it was on Tuesday morn...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 12:16 PM
If it weren't for the surge of volume in Treasuries lining up perfectly with economic report release times, one might wonder if traders even care that...
Thu, Oct 31 2024, 11:45 AM
I recently went to my favorite local Mexican restaurant, and there was a sign in the window, “Sorry, we are closed due to short staff.” Someone had wr...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 4:35 PM
Decent Showing in Light of Stronger Data
Bonds lost ground today, but not as much as one might expect given ...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 3:57 PM
The jobs report that came out at the beginning of October was a big wake up call for interest rates. Up until then, the prevailing belief was that th...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 11:58 AM
As I head from Denver to the Bay Area early this morning, I thought to myself, “Why are corn farmers great at eavesdropping? Because they have ears ev...
Wed, Oct 30 2024, 11:26 AM
It's been an interesting morning for the bond market so far. ADP employment came in much stronger than expected. 15 minutes later, Q3 GDP was slight...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 4:40 PM
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 3:56 PM
Mortgage rates tend to be updated only once per day. Lenders set rates based on trading levels in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) which are essentia...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 11:46 AM
Heard in the hallways here at the MBA’s annual convention in December. “I wonder if the MBA’s volume estimate of $2.3 trillion for 2025 includes all o...
Tue, Oct 29 2024, 10:18 AM
As we've noted on many occasions in the past few years, JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) used to be a non-event in terms of economic...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 5:16 PM
Bonds Doing What Bonds Do
Another week, another chance for bonds to do the only thing it seems like they kno...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 3:58 PM
It's no mystery that mortgage rates have had a terrible October. As of last Friday, the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rates were up to 6.90--a...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 11:47 AM
Thousands of lenders and vendors braved the gate lice to fly to Denver (the term for people who crowd around the gate at an airport, sometimes in an a...
Mon, Oct 28 2024, 10:40 AM
After 2 frustrating weeks spent moving toward higher yields without any major justification from the economic data, things are about to change. From ...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 3:40 PM
Stronger Start, Weaker Finish
Bonds had a fine morning with overnight gains bringing yields in line with the...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 12:35 PM
Mortgage rates reached their highest level of the week on Wednesday and haven't really moved since then. Technically each subsequent day saw a micros...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 11:41 AM
“A herd of cows broke into a Colorado weed farm. Police and animal control are on the scene, and the steaks are high.” This will be the last day in th...
Fri, Oct 25 2024, 11:17 AM
Granted, we were by no means looking for big things from this morning's Durable Goods data, but somehow it still managed to underwhelm. That's not sa...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 4:56 PM
Better Balance, Finally
In the context of the first 3 days of the week, bonds pulled off a miracle today. M...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates have risen every day since October 15th and some of the jumps have been fairly big. That followed an even bigger increase earlier in t...
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 11:09 AM
Were solid, rounded airplane windows considered “innovation”? Indiana’s Carol K. has the answer. There’s always innovation, in this case entertaining....
Thu, Oct 24 2024, 10:31 AM
Thursday morning brought the week's only arguably important economic data in the form of Jobless Claims and S&P's PMIs. Both have a decent track reco...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Why Would Rates Care About a One-Party Sweep?
Our morning commentary resulted in widespread questions regard...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 4:09 PM
Mortgage rates have been moving two directions recently and both of them are "up." Only the pace changes. Today's pace was modest to moderate, but b...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 3:15 PM
Housing was chugging right along in early 2020, then covid happened. Housing experienced lots of unexpected volatility with the most important develo...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 2:53 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) keeps track of applications for purchase and refi mortgages every week. Purchase apps are slower moving, less ...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 11:49 AM
“The coast is clear,” and today I head to the Palm Beach Mortgage Professionals Expo hosted by FAMP’s Broward-Gold Coast Chapter. Legal issues will be...
Wed, Oct 23 2024, 10:13 AM
For those of you who already feel like you fully understand the message in Tuesday's recap, the next few days and weeks might get a little repetitive,...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 4:35 PM
Much Calmer, But Risks Remain
Bonds had a significantly calmer day in terms of day-over-day change. In fact...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates jumped to their highest levels since late July yesterday. Underlying market movement wasn't readily attributable to any singular headl...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 11:54 AM
“An eye for an eye, Tooth for a tooth. Vote for me and I'll set you free! Rap on, brother, rap on. Well, the only person talking about loving thy brot...
Tue, Oct 22 2024, 10:30 AM
Monday was frustrating for the bond market. It was a medium large sell-off that would have made more sense as a flat, forgettable Monday. The only th...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 4:48 PM
Ratio of Weakness to Confirmed Explanations is Off The Charts
Every year there are a few days where bonds mo...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 3:42 PM
By the smallest of margins, mortgage rates are back up to levels last seen in July. That means we've gone from being fairly close to 6% in mid-Septem...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 12:16 PM
First off, there's no great explanation for the extent to which bonds are losing ground this morning. These days happen occasionally. Sometimes an e...
Mon, Oct 21 2024, 11:46 AM
Sports have a lot of fans, and heroes. With only 10 days until Halloween, what a great time of year to be a sports fanatic. You never have to leave yo...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday
Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnig...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 3:52 PM
There hasn't been much day to day movement in mortgage rates after the big jump caused by the jobs report earlier in the month. That jump ended on Mo...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 3:01 PM
While this technically signals some cooling in new construction potential, it wasn't much more of a drop than investors expected. Moreover, there has...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 12:14 PM
A while back I parked my car outside a government office building in Sacramento. "Sir, you can't park here," said a cop. "This is where our politician...
Fri, Oct 18 2024, 11:02 AM
While the recent trend has been unpleasant for the bond market, at least it's logical. Apart from some uncertainty related to the election and forthc...
Thu, Oct 17 2024, 5:27 PM
Fairly Big Sell-Off, But Last Week's Range is Intact
Bonds dealt with a trifecta of unfriendly economic data...
