Wed, Apr 2 2025, 12:06 PM
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out ...
Wed, Apr 2 2025, 11:44 AM
Does anyone use the term “elderly” anymore? Websters defines elderly as “anyone past middle age,” “middle age” being 45-64. Prepare for a fight if you...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously wor...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 3:29 PM
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on t...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 11:41 AM
This ain’t no April Fools economic news: not only has Hooters declared bankruptcy, but apparently there is yet another push to have credit unions pay ...
Tue, Apr 1 2025, 10:33 AM
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher. T...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:48 PM
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors rea...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 3:30 PM
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 11:48 AM
It’s been three years since Credit Plus re-branded as Xactus, and now another name brand in the mortgage world has a new name. Corelogic has become Co...
Mon, Mar 31 2025, 10:34 AM
Right out of the gate in the overnight session, stocks were weaker and bonds were stronger in a risk-off move that has become all too familiar for fin...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:34 PM
First thing's first before anyone gets too excited: yes, rates fell on Friday, but not significantly. The average lender is still a bit closer to the...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:16 PM
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) tracks purchase contract signings that have not yet turned into Existing Home Sa...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 5:14 PM
What's Up With The Big Bond Rally Despite Higher Inflation?
It was one thing when bonds were only modestly s...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 4:19 PM
This week's update on refinance application demand accurately reflects the fact that rates came into the week near their recent highs, but managed to ...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 3:52 PM
It's not uncommon for certain medications to come with warnings about avoiding certain activities like driving or operating heavy machinery due to the...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 3:29 PM
There are two dominant home price indices released each month in the U.S. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is responsible for the most all-i...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 11:49 AM
“What is the difference between the government and organized crime? Only one of them is organized.” (Suitable for any administration.) Government poli...
Fri, Mar 28 2025, 9:34 AM
Inflation, via this morning's PCE price index, came in slightly hotter than expected, but bonds are rallying in response. There are a few ways to appr...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 4:28 PM
Uneventful Drift Ahead of Friday's Monthly PCE Data
For the 3rd day in a row, the bond market logged a rathe...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 3:26 PM
With the exception of Monday, which saw a medium-sized uptick in mortgage rates, the rest of the week has been fairly calm in terms of volatility. Unf...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 11:21 AM
Here in San Diego at the MCT Exchange 2025, with nearly 500 registrants, the agenda’s keynote speaker and one of the panels was composed of Fannie and...
Thu, Mar 27 2025, 8:58 AM
If you're just joining us, here's a brief history of the last few decades as it concerns inflation and interest rates. Inflation was an overblown conc...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 5:27 PM
Narrow Trading, Weaker Drift; MBS Live Threads Intro
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but found a bit...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 4:58 PM
It depends what one's definition of "recent" is, but if it involves the past few weeks, mortgage rates were at their highest recent levels both yester...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 11:41 AM
Anyone who thinks politics doesn’t impact residential lending isn’t, frankly, paying attention. Let’s start with something simple, like… interest rate...
Wed, Mar 26 2025, 11:37 AM
The first 3 days of this week have all generally seen yields at the highest levels in a month (or perhaps in "at least 28 days" considering Feb's day ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 4:25 PM
Overnight Weakness Gives Way to Modest Gains
In absolute terms, it was a moderately active day for bonds as ...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 4:02 PM
One of the key principles of mortgage rate movement has to do with the frequency of mortgage rate changes. Specifically, mortgage lenders prefer to u...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 11:45 AM
This week I head to San Diego for MCT Exchange 2025, and my email has been heating up. “Rob, are you hearing about a big jump in lock volume last week...
Tue, Mar 25 2025, 10:25 AM
Bonds came into the domestic session in weaker territory after steady selling in Europe. The resulting yields were ultimately a few bps higher than t...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 3:59 PM
Yields Pushing Range Boundaries After Tariff Updates and Econ Data
Bonds lost ground over the weekend as new...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 3:41 PM
The average mortgage lender raised rates modestly on Monday morning--a logical move considering the weakness in the bond market over the weekend. Rat...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 12:26 PM
Bonds are starting the week in weaker shape. If you had to reduce that movement to one motivation, it would be the "risk-on" vibes following more news...
Mon, Mar 24 2025, 11:58 AM
“A government survey has shown that 91 percent of illegal immigrants come to this country so that they can see their own doctor.” On a more serious no...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 4:45 PM
Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged
Bonds began the day in stronger territory after tracing...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 4:04 PM
As is the case with a majority of housing and mortgage market data these days, the Existing Home Sales data from NAR is heavily dependent on context. ...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 3:49 PM
The Mortgage Bankers Association conducts a weekly survey on the level of mortgage applications, both for purchases and refinances. Both data series ...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 3:25 PM
The Census Bureau released its New Residential Construction report this week, frequently referred to by its principal component "housing starts" (a te...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 3:03 PM
The National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (aka "builder confidence") hasn't been in a purgatory of sorts, ever since t...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 2:44 PM
In terms of the market movement that underlies and dictates mortgage rate movement, today looked a lot like yesterday. Things started strong and fade...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 11:53 AM
“Elon is firing Twitter employees with bad posture. I have a hunch I might be next.” If I have a sprained finger, I don’t need a heart and lung transp...
Fri, Mar 21 2025, 11:49 AM
Heading into this week's Fed announcement, we noted the consolidation pattern in bonds (the convergence of intraday highs and lows in an increasingly ...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 5:06 PM
Uneventful Trading Day, But That's a Win
There's not much to say about today's trading session. MBS and Tre...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 4:32 PM
It was actually a rather uneventful day for the bond market. That means it should have been an uneventful day for mortgage rates (because they're driv...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 11:43 AM
“My wife just left me. She says life revolves around baseball and she's sick of it. I'm quite upset. We were together for 7 seasons.” Say hello to the...
Thu, Mar 20 2025, 11:07 AM
The eternal disclaimer: we should never flat-out expect a particular correlation between stocks and bonds, with limited exceptions. Yesterday's Fed an...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 4:21 PM
Post-Fed Rally is "Nice" But Not Quite Exciting
In a small vacuum, today's Fed announcement had a noticeably...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 3:52 PM
Heading into today, we knew the afternoon's Fed announcement was biggest potential flashpoint for interest rate movement, and that the movement probab...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. The unemployment rate has stabilized at a low level in recen...
Wed, Mar 19 2025, 12:34 PM
Today's only big ticket calendar event is the Fed announcement, but that is more like 3 separate events over the course of roughly 2 hours. The announ...
