Thu, Mar 28 2024, 12:24 PM
While the future can't ever be known, this week's base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and b...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 11:50 AM
Here’s a tip of the day for anyone manning a conference booth: instead of a pen, or mouse pad, how about a locally made treat? Hats off to Aimee, Bobb...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:55 PM
Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support
With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend,...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:44 PM
There are probably only a few 4-day streaks with effectively no movement in mortgage rates, and this is one of them. After falling to 6.91% last Frid...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:55 AM
Could anything be better than Krispy Kreme coming to McDonalds! Yes! The new HMDA data is here! (More of a more serious note below.) Whether donuts or...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:35 AM
There are no significant economic data on tap today. The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it's a bit of a st...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 8:42 AM
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index moved lower last week, apparently indifferent to a slight improvement in mortgage int...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 4:14 PM
Mixed Performance. Data Hurt. Auction Helped. Little Changed
In the bigger picture, bonds found resistance b...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 3:44 PM
After moving back under 7% last week (conventional, 30yr fixed, top tier scenario), mortgage rates have been increasingly unlikely to move. Today was...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 1:53 PM
Sales of newly constructed homes were virtually unchanged in February. The 662,000 seasonally adjusted annual units recorded in during the month was d...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 12:16 PM
Welcome to day 4 of our unofficial 9 day weekend with limited data and volatility ahead of an actual 3.5 day weekend. Is data truly limited if we hav...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 11:15 AM
As conjecture swirls about the economic impact of the collapse of the bridge in Baltimore, did you ever notice that when you put the two words "The" a...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:18 PM
Weaker Start, But MBS Outperform
The week got off to a weaker start with most of the losses seen during the ...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates enjoyed a decently strong week last week, with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate moving down to 6.91% by Friday from 7....
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:54 AM
Here in Louisville, KY, at the TMC event, this one is making the rounds. “What does a real estate agent’s wife say if she can’t sleep? ‘Honey, tell me...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:01 AM
Monday marks the start of a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday) and the beginning of a week that will conclude...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:19 PM
9 Day Weekend For The Bond Market
While it's not technically a 9 day weekend for the bond market, it might a...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:15 PM
As the broader market continued rubbing its eyes in disbelief over the Fed's exceptionally calm attitude on inflation, bonds continued to improve toda...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 1:44 PM
Rather than easing back from the January level as expected, existing home sales shot significantly higher in February, The National Association of Rea...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 12:11 PM
In the current regime of bond market movement, traders have been running from one side of the field to the other in an attempt to get in on the action...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 11:55 AM
I saw a sign recently: “Psychic Fair Cancelled Due to Unforeseen Circumstances.” No one can see into the future, or can read minds, and communication ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:50 PM
Econ Data Keeps Bonds in Check
Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:33 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again to check in with Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey versus reality. To be fair, it's not that Freddie i...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 12:40 PM
The global trading community digested yesterday's Fed events in a relatively constructive way overnight. Combined with lackluster manufacturing PMIs ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 11:38 AM
“90 percent of bald people still own a comb; they just can't part with it.” Many companies that retained servicing in 2020 and 2021, complete with low...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:32 PM
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Dovish Fed
With so much apparently at stake heading into today's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:25 PM
The rate market was intently focused on today's announcement from the Federal Reserve. While many news headlines emphasize the Fed "holding rates ste...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain remai...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 11:39 AM
Anyone wonder what happens after someone steps away from mortgage banking? Well, after exiting Ellie Mae/ICE, Jonathan Corr finds himself involved in ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 10:49 AM
The Fed finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable situation where the market has witnessed several successive months of inflation data that refuse...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 8:14 AM
After rising a cumulative 17 percentage points over the prior two weeks, mortgage application volume slowed slightly last week. The Mortgage Bankers A...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:26 PM
Ceiling Survives But Wednesday is The Test
Any trading day without a big ticket economic report or Fed annou...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged on Tuesday, capping a short but meaningful losing streak over the past 6 business days. During that time, the av...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:51 PM
Builder confidence rose for the fourth straight month and residential construction stats may now be trying to catch up. Both construction permits and ...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:15 PM
While there are several ways in which the trading environment of the past few years is more exciting than normal, it comes with one notable caveat: on...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 10:37 AM
One never knows what one will learn at a mortgage event, like yesterday learning from Lender Toolkit’s Alex K. that Collinsville, Illinois has the lar...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Technical Test
For all that we've talked about the 4.32% technical level and ...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Rates marched higher to the highest levels in March today, but most lenders are only microscopically worse off than Friday afternoon. In the slightly...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 11:05 AM
Lenders are refinancing borrowers who took out intermediate ARMs 3, 5, or 7 years ago and whose rates have gone up. Some here in Las Vegas, walking ar...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 9:43 AM
Ceilings, floors, pivot points, etc. Technical levels don't predict the future, but they can provide context for trends. In some cases, they can ser...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:49 PM
Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:42 PM
Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week
For a short while this morning, it looked as if bonds would break up and ...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 11:22 AM
Just once, I want a username and password prompt to say, “Close enough.” Speaking of technology, this weekend Robbie and I head to Las Vegas for the I...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 9:47 AM
This morning's line-up of econ data is certainly not the most relevant to the bond market, but the NY Fed Manufacturing index has registered an impact...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:40 PM
Data Calling Fed's Confidence Into Question
As the new year began, the late 2023 assumption of multiple rate...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:18 PM
Even though Tuesday's consumer-oriented inflation report (CPI) had the biggest potential to cause drama for rates, it was today's wholesale inflation ...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 11:46 AM
Apart from Tuesday (CPI day), today is this week's next biggest deal in terms of scheduled economic data. The trifecta included Jobless Claims, PPI, ...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 11:37 AM
Fun with numbers: Did you know that, at age 22, Billie Eilish has won twice as many Oscars (2) than 80-year-old Martin Scorsese (1)? (And yes, Samuel ...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:23 PM
Calmer Day of Losses. Data Resumes on Thursday
Without any notable econ data on tap, bonds were left to thei...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates are nowhere near their highs from a few short weeks ago, let alone the much higher highs from late 2023, but they are at the highest le...
