Mon, Aug 26 2024, 9:10 AM
The Durable Goods report is a somewhat inconsistent report in terms of its ability to influence the bond market. There are definitely examples of big...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 4:25 PM
Closing Near Week's Best Levels
If Friday was going to offer any example of scheduled events causing movemen...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 3:47 PM
Every year, the Federal Reserve (aka "the Fed") gathers in Jackson Hole, WY with a bevy of other central bankers and academics to discuss and comment ...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 11:41 AM
“There's a fine line between a numerator and a denominator. Only a fraction of people will find this funny.” Our business is a business of numbers. My...
Fri, Aug 23 2024, 10:19 AM
It's been a slow, uneventful week so far in terms of scheduled events. Even though we certainly saw some elevated volume and volatility over the past...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 5:08 PM
It May Have Seemed Like a Bad Day, But...
Ever since topping out last Thursday morning, bonds have been stea...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 4:29 PM
After moving lower for 4 straight days to hit the 3rd lowest levels in more than a year, mortgage rates bounced just a bit higher today. This was the...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 2:39 PM
Existing Homes (the jargon word for a home that has already been owned and occupied) represent a much larger piece of the home sales pie compared to n...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 11:55 AM
“Great news! I got the whole plane to myself! The large group going to the psychic’s convention all cancelled at the last minute.” (No, this didn’t ha...
Thu, Aug 22 2024, 10:20 AM
There is an ongoing bias toward better buying and lower yields in the bond market in spite of a string of decent economic reports in the past week. J...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:19 PM
Bonds Snooze Through Fed Minutes
At first glance, and based on conventional wisdom, today's most relevant ca...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 4:04 PM
Although the day to day changes in mortgage rates have been modest recently, the slow and steady improvement has brought the average top tier 30yr fix...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 12:18 PM
Today brought the release of the first benchmark revision to the payroll data through March 2024. It caused widespread confusion both before and afte...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 11:32 AM
This morning, I head from Los Angeles to Orlando, FL for the big NAMMBA Connect event. I received this question. “Rob, in your travels, are you hearin...
Wed, Aug 21 2024, 8:21 AM
Two weeks ago, we saw a sudden surge in refinancing activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that, during the week ended August 9, it...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:17 PM
What's Up With 'Secret' Jobs Revisions?
When it was limited to social media, it was one thing, but alarming headlines regarding seemingly under-...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 4:11 PM
File today under "nice." While it wasn't amazing, significant, or even the byproduct of any interesting events, mortgage rates managed to drift modes...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 11:52 AM
Sometimes things are confused with other things. (What do racoons think of Tesla trucks? Those trucks are easy to make fun of.) There isn’t a lot of c...
Tue, Aug 20 2024, 10:09 AM
While there will certainly be some excitement at some point in the future (possibly even the near future), and while we are already well acquainted wi...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:52 PM
Uneventful Summertime Monday
Monday started slow and stayed slow throughout. MBS held well within the narro...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 3:42 PM
After the intense volatility seen earlier in August, the average change for mortgage rates on any given day has been shrinking. Last week was a mere s...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 11:35 AM
A quick note for anyone coming to the California MBA’s Western Secondary via LAX and taking a ride share to the venue: grab the lime green shuttle bus...
Mon, Aug 19 2024, 11:07 AM
In past examples of imminent shifts in Fed policy, the late August Jackson Hole symposium has been a relevant--and sometimes substantial--market mover...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:54 PM
Calmer Week, But Are Storms Brewing?
By the time this week's CPI data came in as expected, it was highly unl...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 5:17 PM
Mortgage rates had a much calmer week this week compared to the previous 2. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held a fairly narrow range between 6...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:21 PM
At first glance, the first half of the trading day has been volatile for the bond market, but at second glance, trading levels are just returning in l...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:12 PM
Residential construction slowed in July. Both the rate of permitting and of housing starts were down from the prior month and starts were the worst in...
Fri, Aug 16 2024, 12:03 PM
On a sad note, entrepreneur “Famous Amos” passed away a few days ago. Cookies are a major food group for me, and here was a fellow who had fun and mad...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 4:29 PM
Jobless Claims May Have Hit Bonds Harder Than Retail Sales
Hot take, and one that's subject to debate, depen...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 3:53 PM
Mortgage rates had moved a bit lower since their most recent high last Thursday. By yesterday afternoon, the average lender had moved down to 6.49 fr...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 11:55 AM
Looking at the attendees of various mortgage events around the nation over the last several months, I remember back to when a “new hip joint” meant so...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 10:31 AM
The record will show that today's Housing Market Index (aka "builder confidence") from the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo fel...
Thu, Aug 15 2024, 10:15 AM
It's a surprisingly straightforward morning for the bond market. The two most important economic reports did exactly the opposite of what bond bulls ...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 5:06 PM
Uncommonly Flat CPI Reaction
Over the past year, the average CPI day can be picked out on a chart of daily b...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 4:35 PM
Today brought the release of important economic data with the power to cause a sharp increase or decrease in mortgage rates. There are a wide variety...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 11:51 AM
This morning I head through Chicago to Michigan to the MMLA Conference, where one of the discussion topics will be the NAR changes and how they impact...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 11:51 AM
These things happen... While it's true that CPI is one of the two hardest-hitting economic reports (the other being the jobs report), it's also true ...
Wed, Aug 14 2024, 8:06 AM
A second week of lower interest rates appeared to send homeowners scrambling to refinance their higher-rate mortgages assumed over the last few years....
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:40 PM
PPI Drives Decent Rally; But CPI Packs a Bigger Punch
This morning's core m/m Producer Price Index hit 0.0% ...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 4:27 PM
If you're just here to keep an eye on daily changes in mortgage rates, today was solid. There was a modest improvement versus yesterday and the avera...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 11:44 AM
“I ordered a book titled, ‘How to scam people online’ two months ago. It still hasn't arrived yet.” Let’s open today’s Commentary with a couple topics...
Tue, Aug 13 2024, 8:41 AM
Although last month's CPI data was well-received by the bond market for coming in below expectations and showing a notable drop in the shelter compone...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:48 PM
Uneventful Monday With Modest Gains
From a volume standpoint, both Friday and today were very light. This i...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 4:35 PM
Today was completely different than the previous Monday in that it was a normal, boring day with essentially no change in mortgage rates over the week...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 12:22 PM
With almost three more months of political jabbering, here’s a town in Kentucky that keeps politics in perspective with qualified candidates. In a mix...
Mon, Aug 12 2024, 11:43 AM
Summertime Fridays and Mondays are prone to low volumes--especially when they are virtually data-free, as is the case to begin the new week. The pere...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 5:25 PM
Straightforward, Uneventful Session Caps The Correction
Bonds have been in correction mode for almost the en...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 4:44 PM
After starting out at the lowest levels in more than a year on Monday morning, mortgage rates had done nothing but increase through Thursday afternoon...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:35 AM
“How do you tell when you're out of invisible ink?” How do you tell when interest rates are “where they’re supposed to be?” Arguably, rates, based on ...
Fri, Aug 9 2024, 11:00 AM
Now that it's essentially over, it's easy to label this week as a quintessential consolidation and/or modest correction. In fact, even before it bega...
