Concurrent with a 1.4% stock sell off and civil unrest abroad, benchmark Treasuries have benefitted from a flight to safety. This has led "rate sheet influential" MBS prices to intraday highs.
REPRICES FOR THE BETTER HAVE BEEN REPORTED
10yr TSY note yields moved back to the originator friendly side of the recent range before profit takers and a decline in trading volume put a lid on further positive progress. This slowing of the rally lines up with the same noisy cluster of resistance we've seen repeatedly over the past 5 weeks (RANGE!).
Notice the range is consolidating at a quicker pace though (i.e. it's getting narrower over time)...
MBS are benefitting from the benchmark rally but are lagging by comparison. FNCL 4.5's continue to struggle to get out of the low side of the recent rangebut have risen far enough today to warrant reprices for the better.
In thinking about the apparent cause of the stock sell-off and consequent flight to safety bond market rally, one thing we know about the market moving on civil unrest is that it is usually temporary in nature until/unless supported by normal market fundamentals. I think that's probably a good thing to keep in mind, and suggests we continue to wait for those market fundamentals to support a break of the range. It is a Friday afterall....