It seems like Fannie 3.5's are at 102-12 today every time we look at the screen. While that's a bit of an overstatement (indeed they're 102-11 at the moment), we probably wouldn't pay too much more attention to MBS prices this afternoon unless we get a sustained push to 102-10 and below.

In terms of broader comments on bond markets, 10yr yields held another convincing pivot point in the mid 2.24's through the 3pm close and continue to ratchet gently lower over the past several sessions.

We're hoping for a supportive month-end/quarter-end week ahead, and are also cognizant of it being the end of the fiscal year for a not-insignificant participant in Treasuries and MBS: Japan. Bernanke speaks several times. There's an important 5yr Note Auction on Wednesday and GDP hits Thursday morning followed by more important economic data on Friday.

With all the recent preference given to "tradeflows and technicals" in our analysis, we really see the next week as merging those more ethereal concepts with the tangible logic of fundamental data and auction results. In other words, the net-effect of next week's scheduled events stands a good chance to inform the next move in the technical framework. The new range is still defined by a 2.1-2.4% 10yr yield and we've only just crossed the midpoint today.

MBS have descended back to morning levels and 10yr yields are back up into the 2.24's after a heady little rally at 10am. News that Greece will extend the deadline for the remaining "international law" bondholders until April 4th is having a positive effect on risk markets, bringing stocks up and weakening bond markets.

We weren't especially convinced we'd see any positive reprices earlier and indeed got only one. Similarly, we're not now expecting a flood of negative reprices, but we are sensitive the a 6/32nds swing in prices for any lenders who priced between 10:15 and 10:45am.

In terms of gauging the broader shifts, 10yr yields are at an important pivot point here in the 2.24's. This could turn out to be an oversimplification, but it looks like if 10's can hold a pivot at 2.244, then MBS will be content to hold their ground as well, minimizing the already relatively small reprice risk. Fannie 3.5's are still 6 ticks improved on the day at 102-12.

to recap: we'd keep an eye on 2.244 in 10's and 102-11 in Fannie 3.5's as pivot points. If MBS are moving lower through 102-11, reprice risk is increasing.