MBS Live: MBS MID-DAY

Volatility has been the name of the game this morning, although that theme has been playing out more for Treasuries than it has for MBS.  The day began with both in weaker territory, but whereas 10yr yields have nearly returned to their weakest levels of the day, MBS have been doing a better job of fighting off that weakness.  Pending Home Sales did little to motivate market movement and there's no significant data left on the calendar for today.  As such, we'd expect technicals and tradeflows to be in more control as the day progresses, with a cross of the morning highs in 10yr yields boding ill for MBS resilience.

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FNMA 3.5
102-11 : -0-02
FNMA 4.0
104-19 : +0-00
FNMA 4.5
106-05 : +0-01
FNMA 5.0
107-29 : +0-01
GNMA 3.5
103-26 : -0-02
GNMA 4.0
107-01 : +0-01
GNMA 4.5
108-23 : +0-01
GNMA 5.0
110-16 : +0-05
FHLMC 3.5
102-04 : -0-02
FHLMC 4.0
104-10 : -0-01
FHLMC 4.5
105-29 : +0-01
FHLMC 5.0
107-21 : +0-02
Pricing as of 11:05 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard.

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11:04AM  :  Treasuries Near Worst Levels, MBS Outperforming
After rallying for the first 1.5 hours of the day, Treasuries abruptly lost momentum owing to a lack of sponsorship below 2.24. Where else to go then, besides back from whence they came? 10's have done exactly that and just put in a bounce at yields roughly equivalent to opening highs near 2.28.

While 4bp swings in both directions inside a 3 hour time frame speak to the relatively more volatile morning, MBS are doing much better by comparison. Fannie 3.5's are down only 2 ticks on the day at 102-12 and unlike Treasuries, haven't ventured back toward their weaker levels of the morning in the lower 102's.

Pending Home Sales was a non-event in terms of market-movement this morning, as Treasuries and MBS are opting for a range trade against the backdrop of the lightest day of scheduled events this week.

We're not too troubled by Treasury weakness if it continues to find support at 2.29 or below as the 2.29-2.26 zone is our leading candidate for THE pivot point of the "new range." Really, anything between 2.29 and 2.21 is akin to a more equivocal range-trade between what are generally regarded as the extremes of the new range at 2.1-2.4. Maybe that's why MBS aren't too troubled by the Treasury weakness either (psychologically speaking). Stay on guard against a 10yr Treasury move into the 2.29's though as we'd expect MBS to reconsider their resilience in such an event.
10:03AM  :  ECON: Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall in February
* - 0.5 % vs consensus +1.0 pct

Pending home sales were down slightly in February but remain notably above the pattern in the first half of last year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, eased 0.5 percent to 96.5 in February from 97.0 in January but is 9.2 percent above February 2011 when it was 88.4. The data reflects contracts but not closings.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said we’re seeing the continuation of an uneven but higher sales pattern. “The spring home buying season looks bright because of an elevated level of contract offers so far this year,” he said. “If activity is sustained near present levels, existing-home sales will see their best performance in five years. Based on all of the factors in the current market, that’s what we’re expecting with sales rising 7 to 10 percent in 2012.”

The PHSI in the Northeast slipped 0.6 percent to 77.7 in February but is 18.4 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index jumped 6.5 percent to 93.8 and is 19.0 percent higher than February 2011. Pending home sales in the South fell 3.0 percent to an index of 105.8 in February but are 7.8 percent above a year ago. In the West the index declined 2.6 percent in February to 99.3 and is 1.8 percent below February 2011.
8:49AM  :  ECON: Chicago Fed Index Turned Negative in February
Although "turning negative" isn't a major development for the Chicago Fed NAI (it was negative as recently as Novemeber and has crossed between positive and negative 5 times since 2010), it does break a trend of recently stronger growth.

Both Dec and Jan showed two of the largest deviations from the Indexes "average growth" level of 0.00, coming in at +0.66 and +0.33 respectively. Today's -0.9 breaks that recently positive trend.

Despite that, folks who care about this report tend to also look at the 3 month moving average with actually improved this month due to November's weak reading being replaced with today's "less weak" reading.

Chi Fed notes production-related indicators led the decrease.
8:39AM  :  ALERT: Germany to Grow Bailout Fund, Bond Markets Weaker This AM
Bond markets held within Friday's trading range throughout much of the overnight session, despite better than expected data on the German economy (IFO Business Climate Index improved marginally). Volume remained fairly light and markets seemed to be waiting for guidance until they received it from news that Germany was, "poised to bow to international pressure and allow a temporary increase in the eurozone’s financial “firewall” this week, to prevent the crisis in the region’s periphery spreading to other member states," according to the FT.

The range in 10's subsequently broke higher and the defensive line held at 2.26+ quickly gave way to a test of 2.29. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was the first to moderate the "risk on" response to the news in clarifying that only €200 bln of the EFSF is being considered to run in tandem with the €500 bln ESM. The earlier news mentioned total firewall capabilities closer to €1 trln.

Bernanke weighed in on the domestic employment situation at 8am in generally bearish fashion, helping bond markets continue to dig their heels in, and the lower-than-previous Chicago Fed National Activity Index, didn't disagree with the moderation of yields as the first half hour of the domestic session ended.

10's are back to 2.25's and Fannie 3.5 MBS are down only 2 ticks from Friday's 5pm levels at 102-11. Moving in the right direction so far today...
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Chat on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matt Hodges  :  "early payoff penalty"
Matt Hodges  :  "no, but beware of EPO"
Robert Rippy  :  "It is a conventional refi by the way."
Robert Rippy  :  "If I do a rate-term refinance using the purchase price (which is less than appraised value), is there a seasoning requirement?"
Matt Hodges  :  "no surprise, given last week's reports out of NAR"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. FEB PENDING HOME SALES INDEX -0.5 PCT (CONSENSUS +1.0 PCT) TO 96.5 - REALTORS "
Chris Kopec  :  "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-26/fed-s-inflation-gauge-reveals-2008-high-a-distant-threat.html"
Chris Kopec  :  "“The options market does not expect a further violent rise in rates,” Piyush Goyal, a fixed-income strategist in New York at Barclays, said in a March 22 telephone interview. “If the option market believed in a very large back-up in yields similar to what we got in final quarter of 2010 when rates went from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent, the payer skews would have risen more.” "
Jeff Anderson  :  "Had a number of new offers go in over the weekend after a little lull. How'd anyone else see it this weekend?"
Jeff Anderson  :  "That was the only sentence that caught my attention. Went back to Sporstcenter not long after."
Victor Burek  :  "i guess..markets really want more"
Matthew Graham  :  "now me... I see the word "continued" as meaning, well, "continued." Some see those letters and hear the word "additional" apparently. "
Matthew Graham  :  ""“To the extent that this reversal has been completed, further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.”"
Matthew Graham  :  "it's a stretch..."
Victor Burek  :  "bloomberg saying Bernanke hinted at more QE? did you see any headline?"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "stocks rallied on ben a bit"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "bonds were down allnight"
Matthew Graham  :  "bonds are down overnight and moderating on Bernanke"
Matthew Graham  :  "bonds aren't down on bernanke"
Sung Kim  :  "so basically saying economic strength is questionable yet bonds are donw"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - BERNANKE: HAVE NO SPECIFIC EVIDENCE THAT ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER PAST YEAR WAS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ESTIMATED "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- BERNANKE: SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF IMPROVEMENT IN THE LABOR MARKET HAS REFLECTED DECLINE IN LAYOFFS RATHER THAN INCREASE IN HIRING "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- BERNANKE SAYS BETTER JOBS NUMBERS SEEM SOMEWHAT OUT OF SYNC WITH PACE OF ECONOMIC EXPANSION "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- BERNANKE SAYS U.S. JOB MARKET REMAINS “FAR FROM NORMAL” DESPITE RECENT IMPROVEMENT "
Andrew Horowitz  :  "Ben calling recent job gains trransitory"
Jeff Anderson  :  "GM, all. Why is CNBC covering Big Ben's speech live this AM? He gives speeches all the time. Expecting some QE3 talk?"