MBS Live: MBS Morning Market Summary
All the vital details are pretty much covered in the updates and featured comments below.  NFP came in weaker-than-expected, and after a good bit of volatility, bond markets firmly proceeded into stronger territory.  Although there hasn't been any major or SUSTAINED break higher, Fannie 3.5 MBS did in fact, hit their ALL-TIME-HIGHS a few minutes ago.  10yr yields hit 1.88 technical resistance and have since bounced slightly higher to 1.887.  In other words, we have a rally on our hands, but according to signals being given at the moment, it's mostly run its course for today.  That's not to say things couldn't change into the afternoon, but for now, volume and volatility are already beginning to take on that characteristic "Friday Afternoon" vibe.  At these levels, that's just fine with us.  As we often say, it's good for bond markets to rally, but counterproductive for mortgage markets when they rally too quickly.  5bps lower in 10yr yields feels like a warm bowl of porridge.  Hopefully current levels are sustained without too much drama.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.5
104-03 : +0-06
FNMA 4.0
106-02 : +0-05
FNMA 4.5
107-11 : +0-03
FNMA 5.0
108-29 : +0-03
GNMA 3.5
105-20 : +0-05
GNMA 4.0
108-18 : +0-05
GNMA 4.5
109-19 : +0-02
GNMA 5.0
110-32 : +0-02
FHLMC 3.5
103-28 : +0-05
FHLMC 4.0
105-25 : +0-05
FHLMC 4.5
106-28 : +0-03
FHLMC 5.0
108-10 : +0-03
Pricing as of 11:08 AM EST
Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers this morning.
8:51AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Bond Markets Turning Green Following Post-NFP Indecision
Wow! This has been quite the choppy back-and-forth post-NFP trade! It's not that such things are unexpected or uncommon following NFP, just that today's took place around unchanged levels vs yesterday both for Fannie 3.5 MBS and 10yr Treasuries.

Despite the lower-than-expected headline NFP (+115k vs +170k consensus), bond markets were paradoxically weaker for much of the first 10 minutes following the release. They've since turned positive but as yet, haven't fully committed to a "breakout" rally past their best previous levels.

Fannie 3.5's are up 3 ticks at 103-31+ and 10yr yields are down 1.5 bps at 1.915. Volume is as big as expected, that is to say, the past 20 minutes have been bigger than any previous full hour since the last NFP. Although the story is far from over today, we're certainly in a "so far so good" stance as far as bond markets are concerned.
8:35AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: ECON: NFP Falls +115k vs Expectations of +170k
*NFP +115k, vs Consensus +170k

* March revised up from 120k to 154k

* Unemployment Rate 8.1% vs 8.2% consensus

* Smallest rise since October 2011 for NFP

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.
Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of the featured comments from the MBS Live Dashboard's Live Chat feature, utilized by hundreds of industry professionals each day.
Matthew Graham  :  "one of the best articles to ever grace the pages of MND just now: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/05032012_mortgage_crisis_securitizatio.asp"
Brett Boyke  :  "5/3"
jonathan globerman  :  "are there any conduits buying Harp 2 with MI above 105%"
Ira Selwin  :  "Paul - they do have 2 sheets for today"
Daniel Kramer  :  "REPRICE: 10:42 AM - Wells Fargo Better"
Paul Carlin  :  "did wells fargo just price again"
Ira Selwin  :  "Fannies - 5/10, GNMA's - 5/17"
Brayden Alexander  :  "♪♫♪♫ Happy Friday to you!"
Matthew Graham  :  "yeah"
Matt Hodges  :  "roll next week, MG?"
Christopher Stevens  :  "great minds think alike"
Matthew Graham  :  "drop the balloons "
Christopher Stevens  :  "MG- are we reaching all time high levels on the 3.5"
Matthew Graham  :  "all time highs for FN 3.5's just now"
Matthew Graham  :  "rephrased: Treasury volume is still very strong relative to average volumes, but definitely way lower than this morning. MBS volume had a few pops this morning, but now is merely average to slightly below average."
Matthew Graham  :  "the past 10 minutes of volume in 10yr futures is slightly higher than best 10 minutes from yesterday, but only about a third of the 10 minutes that followed this AM's release."
Gus Floropoulos  :  "Im seeing 25 bps better on best ex spreads"
Andy Pada  :  "starting to see some improvements at 3.75 note rate on cash window"
MMNJ  :  "if the programis established with a calender end date of 12/31/2009, then that just makes a little more sense to me. We can have the "what about XX date on an infinite loop"
Aaron Buyside Meyer  :  "but what about a loan funded on 1/2/10?"
MMNJ  :  "the thought process of someone being able to refi at a 145LTV vs the person making payments on time who is at a 103 LTV not being able to is a little unsettling"
MMNJ  :  "i guess making it through 12/31/09 would have made more sense to me, but what do I know"
Matthew Graham  :  "hence murphy's "hat plucking" notion."
Matthew Graham  :  "the logistics of making it floating-date and/or case-by-case, are perhaps unfeasible "
MMNJ  :  "which is the reason I asked JM....one of my LO's asked me "why is a 125% LTV Fannie loan OK from 5/30, but if it was 6/2 then you are SOL""
Matthew Graham  :  "It's like this Dave... I will loan you money, but I'm not funding your deal if until I've earned enough interest on the old loan that you're going to pay off with the new loan. "
john murphy  :  "my guess mmnj, is that a date had to be established evne if plucked out of a hat, to ensure some stability in the MBS market re prepayments in addition to the thought that most prop depreciation occurred prior to that date..i get that question alot (mostly fr LO's). thoughts?"
Matthew Graham  :  "because the $$ behind the loans wouldn't want to play ball if they were inviting rampant prepayment increases."
MMNJ  :  "can someone give me a layman explanation as to why HAARP has a 5/31/2009 cutoff date?"
MMNJ  :  "need more meat / held levels on the 3.0 to have a discussion on changing"
Daniel Kramer  :  "3.0 chat time MG.??? :)"
Victor Burek  :  "The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent"
Bill Laffey  :  "giving up the search/hope is reflected in Participation Rate?"
Matthew Graham  :  "stocks falling again now. Stock lever looking well-connected at the moment"
Jeff Anderson  :  "Dow turning positive. Here comes QE3."
Dan Clifton  :  "Brayden, yes, more people dropping out of job market so less total people to calculate the percentagefrom"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. APRIL NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE SMALLEST SINCE OCT 2011 (+112,000); JOBLESS RATE LOWEST SINCE JAN 2009 (7.8 PCT) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. APRIL JOBLESS RATE 8.1 PCT (CONSENSUS 8.2 PCT) VS MARCH 8.2 PCT (PREV 8.2 PCT) "
Brayden Alexander  :  "115 but rate goes down again "
MMNJ  :  "rally time"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. APRIL GOVERNMENT JOBS -15,000 VS MARCH -12,000 (PREV -1,000) "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US APRIL PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS +130,000 (CONS +175,000), MARCH +166,000 (PREV +121,000) "
Victor Burek  :  "gonna be interesting"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. APRIL NONFARM PAYROLLS +115,000 (CONSENSUS +170,000) VS MARCH +154,000 (PREV +120,000), FEB +259,000 (PREV +240,000) "
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