Treasury yields are falling for the first time in seven sessions as investors hesitate to push equities higher until new data hits the wires.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is two basis points lower at 2.19%, the two-year yield is one basis point lower at 0.28%, and the 30-year yield is two basis points lower at 3.18%.

Over the past five trading sessions, the 10-year yield has climbed from 1.84%.

S&P 500 futures are 3.6 points lower (-0.30%) at 1,19460 and Dow futures are 22 points lower (-0.19%) at 11,394. 

So far this month, the S&P has rebounded by 6.7% and the Dow has climbed 5.55%.

"It looks like there is some pullback in overseas markets this morning," said BMO Capital Markets. "The opposition leader in Slovakia said that Friday is the latest date to ratify the [European Financial Stability Fund] deal. The concern now revolves around how much of a haircut the private sector will have to take on their Greek bond holdings. Stories floated around yesterday that banks may be required to take 30%-to-50% of a hit  - versus the 21% that was agreed up back in July.

In Asia, China's Shanghai index rose 0.79%, shares in Hong Kong jumped 2.34%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 finished 0.97% higher. But Europe's ongoing session has the FTSE 100 falling 0.95% and France's CAC-40 has shed 1.06%.

Light crude oil fell 1.55% overnight to $84.33 per barrel, while gold prices moved 0.56% lower to $1,673.80 per ounce.

Key Events Today:

8:30 - The Trade Balance is expected to be in deficit of $46 billion in August, versus a $44.8 billion gap in July and a $51.6 billion hole in June. The July figure was much narrower than anticipated (and the lowest since April) thanks to a 3.6% pickup in exports. The median estimate this month assumes exports will slowing down, but any rise in imports should be limited as WTI oil prices fell $10 per barrel to $86.

"Exports should retreat modestly after a very strong rebound in July," said IHS Global Insight, anticipating a $44 billion deficit. "On the import front, we expect little movement from petroleum imports, while non-petroleum imports should decline after a strong uptick in July. Trade should provide a boost of around 1.0 percentage point to growth in the third quarter (after adding 0.2 percentage-points to the second quarter), as export growth improves and imports fall slightly."

Economists at Citigroup also believe net exports added almost a point to GDP in the third quarter. 

"Export demand seems to have picked up somewhat in the quarter. But the real shift was in imports, which stalled out completely in real terms. As such, it is hard to view the mathematical contribution from trade as a positive for the economy. The pullback in import growth was matched by a similar drop in domestic demand for imported products and services."

8:30 - Initial Jobless Claims rose less than anticipated to 401k in the week ending Oct. 1, with the four-week average declining 4k to 414k. The first full week of October is anticipated to see 405k new filings, which Citi says would allow the four-week average to retreat to a seven-week low.

"However, there is a risk of a larger weekly increase as unadjusted filings typically spike at the beginning of each quarter," Citi added. "Claims were particularly elevated in September reflecting a number of special factors, but also general softening in the economy. Further improvement in filings would support our expectation of faster second half growth."

2:00 - September is usually a time of surplus for the U.S. Treasury Budget, but not this year. Following an August deficit of $134.2 billion, the September deficit is anticipated at $64.5 billion, or roughly double the September 2010 level.

According to Bloomberg, the average surplus for September over the past decade has been $29.8 billion; for the last five years: $27 billion. 

Nomura Global Economics estimates that Treasury receipts fell 4% year-over-year in September, while government outlays grew 14.5%. 

"As such, the U.S. budget deficit likely widened to $85 billion compared to $34.6 billion in September 2010," Nomura said. "The U.S. budget deficit is tracking -$1,319 billion in fiscal 2011 compared to -$1,294 in fiscal 2010."

2:30 - Narayana Kockerlakota, president of the Minneapolis Fed, speech to Sidney (Montana) Area Business Leaders.

 

  • Treasury Auctions:
  • 1:00 - 30-Year Bonds