The AM So Far...
- 4.5's up 5 ticks to 99-13 after being as low as 98-29
- Stock futures were quasi-soaring and fixed income was hurtin' for certain until data
- Jobless claims came in higher than forecast, 558k vs. 545k consensus
- 4 week average actually rose to 565k from 556.5k
- cont. claims however fell to 6.2m vs. 6.3m prior, lowest since April
- over 6m still quite "crappy"
- Retail Sales DOWN .1% (yee hah?)
- consensus wanted +0.7
- Previously +0.8
- Excluding auto's down 0.6%!!! vs. +0.1% forecast
- Gasoline made the difference... Down 2.1% vs. up 6.3% in June
- Overall reading is the same as June without the declines in Gas and Autos (mostly gas)
- Excluding Gas and Autos = 5th Straight Monthly Decline
- Tsy's respond favorably as well, 10yr at post FOMC low yield
- Stock futures giving it back
Recap of Previous Session
- Whippy action following data (Auction and FOMC)
- Got back to pre-data levels by day's end though lost a bit in the AM.
- Looked to today's 30yr auction to be unencumbered by "gotta wait to see the FOMC" hesistance on the 10yr, to whatever extent it may have actually played into trading yesterday... Guess we'll find out today...
In The Time It Takes To Type... (NEW!)
A bit of volatility in MBS, but if tsy's are an indication, fixed income continues to push into better territory. 10yr yields have dropped from 3.77 to 3.68 overall. MBS only showing up 3 ticks at the moment, but probably should be a bit better if the yield curve and nominal spread levels are an indication. Being flat before the auction is fine as that will be the major mover of the day now that good data has gotten caught up (and then some) with where we ended yesterday.
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