After a concentrated blast of econ data this AM, the calendar is on break until the 5yr note auction at 1pm. Sure, there is a 4 week bill auction at 1130, but it's inconsequential. In fact, although volume is bit more robust this AM compared to yesterday, it's certainly less than the data would justify in the absence of auctions and FOMC. So as you may have been expecting anyway, the most consequential items of the day (and perhaps the week) are yet to come, and the only chance for a surge in volume comes with it.
All of above notwithstanding, there was always a chance that radically unexpected results in econ data will cause volatility. But none of the data reported this AM was up to that task..
- GDP matches consensus of 2.8%. Prices up less than expected (.5% vs. .8%)
- Corporate Profits were up sharply, but no one cares because anyone can make money when they can borrow for free and lend at 4%. Next...
- Case Shiller 20-city 146.51 vs 146 Consensus
- Consumer Confidence in at 49.5 vs. 47.0 consensus
- FHFA House Price Index 0% MoM change and -3.0% YoY change (previously -.3 and -3.6)
- State Street Index 100.8 vs 108.4 Previous
The charts reflect the lack of directionality...
Just as in MBS above, 10yr tsy's extended their gains yesterday and have since moved into a similarly narrow range...
Stocks aren't telling much of a story either. Weakness extended from yesterday into the AM, mirroring bonds extension of strength. The AM data brought things back to some extent, but never to the point where yesterday's closing level was reached.
Nothing left to do now but wait for the 5yr auction and FOMC minutes. Though both have a chance to flop and leave ranges relatively intact, at the very least, they're the best hope we have for some excitement. But you have to ask yourself, with 4.5 MBS over 102, do you really want any excitement?