December hasn't been very good if you're a bond yield trying to stay low.  It's actually marked the most severe incline since the bygone Black Wednesday era.  While we've corrected back into friendlier territory over the past two days, bonds gave a similar head-fake on 12/4.  At that time, they looked as though they would treat 3.5 in the 10yr tsy as support, only to turn right back around and march higher.

So may we be in a similar situation?  2 things to consider in looking for an answer to such a question.  First of all, maybe.  Second of all, even if we are, would it matter in the context of the low volume expectations over the next two weeks combined with the uncertainty of how the unwinding of year-end-specific trades will affect the curve?  answer: probably not.  it would have to be some serious movement and some unexpected volume to read much into slight deviations from the range.

And speaking of the range, well-established technical levels within the range are merely doing their job as inflection points (or pivot points) at the moment.  You know?  One person's floor is another person's ceiling?  Once support now acts as resistance?  In other words, these are meaningful "hurdles" for bonds from a technical perspective.

Zooming in to intraday, we can see the more minute details of how MBS and Tsy's have approached the levels of 101-14 and 3.49 respectively.

And to simply copy and paste the same words and what looks like the same chart we've been using in stocks for over a month...  Stocks are up to their same old antics, preferring to show absolutely no signs of commitment in either direction during year end.  Yeah, you'll see stocks make some spikey movements here and there, but any sort of "medium-term" view shows that those movements are always taking place against the backdrop of indecision--and strikingly mathematical indecision at that!

Levels:

MBS are up 16 ticks to 101-13.  4.0's are up 21 ticks to 98-24.  The 10yr is down in yield a whopping 10 bps to 3.497.  Curve somewhat flatter, and the whole thing lower.