With Consumer Confidence out, the bleeding in bonds seems to have stopped for the moment. A bit of a paradox at first glance since the data beat expectations of 50.0, coming in at 52.5. After a revision, last month stood at 46.4. Consumers were more positive about their present situation and their expectations. Inflation expectations rose from 5.2% to 5.4%. Not too bad...
So where's the "economic downside" that is seeing stocks pause their rally and bonds correct their sell-off? First, remember what I said last night... Here's a chart to reiterate the point that this index still hasn't shown any meaningful signs of life.
Beyond that, the internal component of the report called "jobs-hard-to-get" stood at it's lowest level since August 2009... Not exactly doing much to refute the overwhelming tone of "weak labor market" from most other economic reports and Fed speakers.
Oh, and then there's the fact that the bond market backed up fairly big-time, right BEFORE the report. So really, the rally has only gotten treasuries back to the weakest part of their range from yesterday. MBS have given up their tightening trends from yesterday and are thus well below their weakest levels yesterday (100-07 vs 100-10)
CAUTION HERE: There's no guarantee this correction will hold, so stay tuned!
Here are the rest of the details on Confidence Report.
- MARCH CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 52.5 VS FEB REVISED 46.4 (PREVIOUS 46.0) - CONFERENCE BOARD
- MEDIAN FORECAST FROM REUTERS FOR MARCH WAS 50.0
- PRESENT SITUATION INDEX 26.0 IN MARCH VS FEB REVISED 21.7 (PREVIOUS 19.4)
- EXPECTATIONS INDEX 70.2 IN MARCH VS FEB REVISED 62.9 (PREVIOUS 63.8) - CONFERENCE BOARD
- JOBS HARD-TO-GET INDEX 45.8 IN MARCH VS FEB REVISED 47.3 (PREVIOUS 47.7) - CONFERENCE BOARD
- 1-YEAR CONSUMER INFLATION RATE EXPECTATIONS 5.4 PCT IN MARCH VS FEB REV 5.2 PCT (PREVIOUS 5.2)
- PRESENT SITUATION INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2009
- JOBS HARD-TO-GET INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE AUGUST 2009
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