• FN 4.5's close (surprise surprise) UNCHANGED at 100-13+, the middle of it's trading range today
• 10yr yield closes at 3.867, also the middle of it's trading range today
• Stocks indeed thwarted by 1174 in the S&P. 
  

There were technical levels mentioned in the previous post of 3.867 in treasuries, 1174 in the S&P and a range of 100-10 to 100-16 in MBS.  Those levels should look fairly familiar as the 10yr closed right at this level, the S&P just under 1174 (1173.22 to be exact), and MBS smack dab in the middle of their range.  In bonds, both MBS and treasuries orbited, honed in, coiled, triangled, and narrowed into their midrange values all day long:

Pretty standard fare for an NFP week where no one wants to get too far out of the boat as Friday's data has a tendency to shift the seas.  That's not to say we couldn't get some excitement along the way.  In fact, I noted earlier that these ranges have gotten so narrow, so fast, that they're unlikely to hold right through the week.  In stocks, it's not so much an issue of moving up and down around a particular level, but rather about testing the 3/23 close of 1174 in the S&P.  A couple tests so far, and a couple failures.

Even though Friday is the big daddy (maybe sooner for MBS who kiss the Fed goodbye mid-week), there's plenty of data that might reinforce or soften that overhead resistance in stocks and send bonds far enough away from that 3.867 gravitational field to find the next one.

First at bats go to Case Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence tomorrow.  Case Shiller may be a bit of a sleeper here as the 3/30 report covers the month of JANUARY.  Historically, a slower month than February, possibly exerting some pressure on prices.  Consumer Confidence continues to struggle to break into the 60's, actually coming in at 46 last month.  The top of the consensus range for tomorrow is only 56!  So unless it beats BIG, it's still not saying much about the previous failed attempted to get out of the dumps.  Anything at consensus or worse could have some decent interim benefit for bonds even before NFP, especially if coinciding with a moderately weaker Case Shiller. 

Of course, both can go the other way as well, but given some of the inherent weaknesses discussed, it seems like the potential energy is a bit better on the side of bond bulls, all things being equal.  The big wild cards are the "when" and "by how much" will we see impact from the Fed exit of the MBS market.  That makes overnight floats riskier and riskier as the week goes on.