• 4.5's up 6 ticks to 100-13
• 10yr at 3.75.  medium term trend channel intact in treasuries
• stocks down a bit, mostly flat.

Both MBS and Tsy's are doing well today in below average volume and not much else to talk about besides earnings.

Not quite sure when it was and not feeling especially motivated to go find it, but either last week or the week before I put up a chart of a "trend channel" in 10yr note yields.  We revisited a few times since, and it's been holding. MBS is pretty "trendy" itself, and although that one can be squeezed into a sort of uptrend channel as well, I've been more interested in that 100-05 / 100-06 level.

I popped those teal lines on the tsy chart to show the break lower below 3.77 (ish).  And as you might be able to see with your microscopes, after bumping into 3.75 on the way down, we're headed back there after the small initial bounce.  With 1.5 hours left before marks, I'd be surprised to see a big break (if any) below 3.75, but that's purely visceral.  Still... Sideways could actually be good for MBS as decreasing volatility benefits not only spreads but perhaps even the psychologies lenders' rate sheet moves. 

Best possibility remains reprices for the better.  Take note of how aggressive the pricing is (or isn't).  And if you're looking at something that's about as good as it has been all month (which is the suggestion from MBS), weigh that carefully against the traditionally weak "Treasury Supply Thursday" coming up tomorrow.